Credit Conditions
Our regional and global Credit Conditions Committees—and the research publications we produce—provide financial market participants around the world with an essential resource for identifying and understanding prevailing and potential credit risks.
Assessing Global Macro-Credit Risks
As an assessment of the external operating environment, our regional and global Credit Conditions Committee forums—covering Asia-Pacific, Emerging Markets, Europe, and North America, which cascade into our global coverage—form an integral part of S&P Global Ratings’ credit rating analysis.
At the CCCs, our senior researchers, economists, and analysts (covering corporates, financial institutions, insurance, structured finance, sovereigns, and U.S. public finance) meet each quarter to evaluate the trends affecting the current and future states of economies, industries, and credit markets. The CCCs identify base case and downside scenarios, and rank exogenous risks. These views are cascaded to our analytical teams to inform their rating deliberations.
Our quarterly and special CCC reports crystallize the Committees’ conclusions, backed by a host of proprietary data, and with an eye toward helping investors make decisions—providing financial market participants around the world with a primary resource for identifying and understanding prevailing and potential credit risks.
Global
Global Credit Conditions And Outlook Q3 2026: Fragile Relief
Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran reduce the tail risk of a more prolonged effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but they do not erase the longer-lasting credit and macroeconomic effects of the disruption.
Our base case continues to assume that supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz ease during the second half of the year.
The near-term disinflationary benefit from lower oil prices could therefore be limited, especially considering second-order effects.
North America
Credit Conditions North America Q3 2026: Peace Plan Calms The Waters
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is only the first step in resolving the Middle East conflict, as energy and supply-chain disruptions are likely to linger. Moreover, war-related inflationary pressures could push borrowing costs higher and curb economic activity. Given the AI buildout's outsized role in industrial and economic growth, rising debt-funded spending, complex financing, and concentration risks could amplify market stress if returns disappoint.
Europe
Credit Conditions Europe Q3 2026: Resilient Through Stormy Waters
Europe’s credit conditions remain resilient, helped by adaptable businesses and constructive financing markets, but the macro outlook is lackluster. Growth is likely to stagnate in the second half of 2026 in our base case, while energy-driven inflation continues to weigh on central banks and borrowers.
Asia-Pacific
Credit Conditions Asia-Pacific Q3 2026: Hormuz Reopens, Fragility Remains
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would lower tail risk, but supply normalization will be uneven and costly. Second-order shocks could cause more credit pains. Tighter monetary policy to stem inflation could come amid capital outflows, potentially at the expense of growth. Additional policy support may narrow fiscal space.
Emerging Markets
Credit Conditions Emerging Markets Q3 2026: Uneven Recovery, Increasing Divergence
Even as supply disruptions linked to the Middle East war gradually ease, emerging markets (EMs) are entering a new phase of the energy shock where second round effects and the potential for a strong El Niño cycle could drive higher inflation. These factors could also weaken demand, and strain fiscal and external balances.
Credit Cycle Indicator
Q3 2026: Middle East Conflict Shadows Credit Outlook
Although steps to normalize shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz are underway, the situation remains fragile. Higher energy and input costs, potential material shortages, and renewed inflation pressures could still filter through the credit cycle.
Latest Research
Take a look at all of our latest credit conditions research.