Corporates
S&P Global Ratings rates over 4,600 corporates globally, giving us timely insight into cross-industry credit trends. This page is dedicated to delivering our most far-reaching, thought-provoking opinions to our stakeholders.
Structural Oversupply Threatens to Erode Container Liner Profitability
- A recent surge in container freight rates has been driven by various surcharges and "front-loading" and is likely to prove temporary, leaving forecast average rates and profits for 2026 still below 2025 levels.
- Structural oversupply will likely dominate the market through 2027, underpinned by an elevated vessel orderbook that will leave capacity growth significantly ahead of forecast increases in global demand.
- Our 2027 forecast of a 10% to 15% decline in average rates for the European container liners we rate reflects this supply overhang, which we expect will last throughout the year and weigh on operators' earnings
Cost Cutting Is EU Automaker’s Best Near-Term Defense Against U.S. Tariff Pressures
- The EU parliament’s approval of the EU-U.S. trade agreement, which had been pending since summer 2025, provides more predictability for European automakers, though the trade relationship remains prone to unexpected setbacks.
- Cost cutting appears to be European automakers’ most effective short-term tool to offset EBITDA margin pressures, given limited pricing upside in the U.S. market and the time and capital required to shift production to the U.S.
- Should EU-U.S. trade relations sour, premium automakers Mercedes, BMW, and Volvo will face the greatest credit quality pressures, while an (unexpected) material reduction in tariffs on Mexico and Canada under a modified United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement would primarily benefit the creditworthiness of Stellantis.
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