Credit Market Research
Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
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Credit Trends
What Will Drive Primary Market Issuance In 2026?
After expected growth of 12% in 2025, we forecast that global issuance growth will slow to roughly 5% in 2026.
Investment-grade bond issuance in the technology sector had exceeded $200 billion by mid-November. We expect debt financing will remain a key component in the 2026 funding mix.
Refinancing for issuers rated 'CCC+' and below has lagged behind, resulting in 2026 maturities that are more than twice as high than those of 'B-' rated issuers.
This Week In Credit
First Fallen Angel Of 2026
Rating activity was soft at the start of the year. Rating actions were on U.S.-based issuers, spread across nonfinancial sectors, and all but one involved speculative-grade issuers.
Last week's downgrades included the year's first fallen angel: Hologic Inc., a medical device manufacturer. We downgraded Hologic to 'B+' from 'BBB-' following a takeprivate transaction.
Two U.S.-based defaults were recorded. We downgraded Saks Global Enterprises LLC, a multi-brand luxury retailer, to 'SD' from 'CCC' due to a missed interest payment. Upstream Newco Inc., an outpatient rehabilitation services provider, was downgraded to 'D' from 'CCC' following the completion of a debt restructuring.
This Month In Credit
Potential Fallen Angels Rise
Downgrades in October outnumbered upgrades for the first time since June, as investment-grade downgrades increased to their highest level since May. Potential fallen angels edged upward for the third month in a row to 39, reaching their highest total since February 2023.
On a positive note, net bias improved to its best level since May, primarily driven by a sharp (25 basis points) decrease in negative bias.
New additions to weakest links declined to eight last month, but half of the new entrants are in the high technology sector (four).
Structured finance: CLO downgrades increased to 27 last month from 15 in September, although there have been no defaults since August. Meanwhile, exposure to corporate obligors rated 'CCC' within CLOs continued to increase.
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