Credit Market Research
Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
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Credit Trends
Global Refinancing: Brisk Issuance Pushes Speculative-Grade Maturity Peak Out To 2031
The peak maturity year for speculative-grade nonfinancial corporate debt has been pushed out to 2031 globally, in a rapid shift from 2029 in April and 2028 in January of this year.
A surge of new bond issuance in the first half of 2026, led by fundraising activity to support the buildout of AI and digital infrastructure, boosted global nonfinancial maturities in 2031, while steady refinancing activity reduced speculative-grade maturities through 2029.
While we view near-term maturities as increasingly manageable, potential challenges remain on the horizon--maturities of debt rated 'B-' and lower rise to $268.8 billion in 2028, much of which is concentrated in the U.S. and in the healthcare, high technology, and media and entertainment sectors.
This Week In Credit
Rating Actions Skew Positive (September 7, 2026)
Positive rating actions exceeded negative actions last week, in line with the overall August trend, with seven upgrades versus three downgrades.
Consumer products led upgrades with three, followed by two in the oil and gas sector.
Downgrades included two media and entertainment issuers, among them, CDK Global II LLC was the only new risky credit, downgraded to 'CCC' on heightened refinancing risk. The third downgrade was in chemicals, packaging, and environmental services (CP&ES).
CP&ES had the highest negative outlook bias (17.2%) as of last week, taking the lead in early August after automotive had been the highest since late November 2025.
This Month In Credit
Broad Improvement Masks Lower-Rated Pressure
Rating momentum notably improved in June with upgrades more than doubling and a sharp increase in the share of investment-grade upgrades, signaling strengthening fundamentals among higher-quality issuers. There were also five rising stars in June-- the highest monthly total since December 2025.
Global corporate defaults retreated sharply in June, reversing May’s temporary spike and reinforcing our view that default activity remains contained. Despite this, we still forecast a modest increase in defaults as geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties persist.
The weakest links total increased in June by nearly 5%, its highest level since December 2025. Nearly 70% of new additions were concentrated in four sectors, highlighting ongoing rating pressure among lower-rated issuers.
Structured finance: Credit performance remained broadly positive in June, though U.S. collateralized loan obligation (CLO) downgrades increased. Those downgrades largely reflected mounting pressure in lower-rated tranches, as failing cash flows and elevated exposure to 'CCC' and defaulted assets weakened credit support.
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