Credit Market Research
Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
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Global Issuance Forecast And Financing Conditions Q2 2026: Expansion Still Expected This Year
The war in the Middle East has had a noticeable impact on financial markets, with bond issuance seeing both pullbacks and pull-forwards in March.
The normal pace of issuance slowed for many countries and sectors in March, but U.S. nonfinancials were an exception, rising 85% over March 2025, partly due to still strong totals from hyperscalers.
We anticipate aggregate bond issuance to expand by more than 4% this year, led by nonfinancial corporates.
Downside risks remain high, and if the war and its subsequent economic disruptions continue for an extended period, we could see slight declines in issuance totals.
This Week In Credit
Rebound In Rating Activity
Rating activity picked up from the previous week, with upgrades tripling to 12 and outpacing downgrades--which increased to nine from four.
The oil and gas sector led upgrade activity, with three upgrades, followed by media and entertainment, with two upgrades. We upgraded Deutsche Telekom AG to 'A-' from 'BBB+', marking the largest rating action by rated debt volume during the week. Downgrades were more broadly distributed across sectors, led by consumer products, with two downgrades.
Two defaults were recorded last week. We downgraded Colisee Group SAS, a nursing home operator, to 'SD' (selective default) from 'CCC-' following a debt exchange transaction, we subsequently upgraded it to 'CCC+' after restructuring. We downgraded United FP Holdings LLC, a fitness clubs developer and operator, to 'D' (default) from 'CCC-' on missed interest payments and an announced forbearance agreement.
This Month In Credit
Speculative-Grade Downgrades Jump
Net outlook bias (the proportion of issuers on positive outlooks or CreditWatch positive minus those on negative) has narrowed to -4.2%, its best level since September 2022, driven by a sharp drop (57 points) in negative bias in April.
Global corporate defaults also fell--declining for the third consecutive month to total four in April. However, S&P Global Ratings expects the default rate to increase over the next 12 months, rising to 4.0% in the U.S. and 3.75% in Europe by March 2027.
Downgrades increased last month, driven by a near doubling in speculative-grade downgrades, primarily of entities rated 'B' and below. Consequently, downgrades to the 'CCC+' and below category increased to nine--the greatest monthly amount since December 2025.
Structured finance: The one‑month average change in credit quality turned negative in April for the first time since January, largely reflecting downgrades outpacing upgrades in CMBS and CLOs and multinotch downgrades in RMBS and ABS.
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