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An ever evolving and dynamic geopolitical scenario continues to shape the future of global economic growth. Its consequences affect all aspects and actors in the private and public sector across the world. Government’s preparedness, capacity, effectiveness and speed of response will prove crucial to go through these diverse sets of conditions. Here you will find our insights about governments and public sector entities around the world, its challenges ahead and our views on where they stand in the face of current and future market developments.
Our analysis revealed that, without policy adjustments, projected demographic trends will put more than 40% of rated European local and regional governments (LRGs) at risk of downgrades by 2050. Migration, aging populations, and a decline in workforce and revenues will weigh on subnational governments' budgets. We expect LRGs' long-term financial sustainability and creditworthiness will decline without central government support and proactive cost management.
Despite persistent global geopolitical and economic uncertainties that could generate downside risk, S&P Global Ratings doesn't expect meaningful changes in emerging market local and regional government financial and borrowing trends in 2026. However, most of the rated EM subnational governments are in speculative-grade category, and consequently, more vulnerable than their higher rated counterparts.
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