Credit Market Research
Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
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Credit Trends
Global Refinancing: Brisk Issuance Pushes Speculative-Grade Maturity Peak Out To 2031
The peak maturity year for speculative-grade nonfinancial corporate debt has been pushed out to 2031 globally, in a rapid shift from 2029 in April and 2028 in January of this year.
A surge of new bond issuance in the first half of 2026, led by fundraising activity to support the buildout of AI and digital infrastructure, boosted global nonfinancial maturities in 2031, while steady refinancing activity reduced speculative-grade maturities through 2029.
While we view near-term maturities as increasingly manageable, potential challenges remain on the horizon--maturities of debt rated 'B-' and lower rise to $268.8 billion in 2028, much of which is concentrated in the U.S. and in the healthcare, high technology, and media and entertainment sectors.
This Week In Credit
High Tech Leads Downgrades (July 27, 2026)
There was an equal number of upgrades and downgrades last week, an increase from the previous week. The high technology sector contributed most downgrades last week with three downgrades to U.S.-based issuers, two of which were downgraded to 'CCC+' or lower.
Upgrades included one rising star, Greece-based Piraeus Bank S.A. (to date the first bank to become a rising star this year). We also raised our long-term sovereign rating on Pakistan to 'B' on improved institutional and fiscal settings.
There were two defaults last week, both on distressed exchanges: High technology company SonicWall Holdings Ltd. and telecommunications services provider Aventiv Technologies LLC.
This Month In Credit
Defaults Rise Despite Overall Improving Rating Trends
Global corporate defaults reached a one-year high in May, driven by a surge in U.S. activity, but the year-to-date total (45) remains below the year to date 2020-2025 average (60), leaving open whether this reflects a sustained upturn or a temporary spike.
Net outlook bias (the proportion of issuers on positive outlooks or CreditWatch positive minus those on negative) has narrowed to -4.0%, its best level since September 2022, driven by a sharp increase (59 basis points) in positive bias in May.
Downgrades remain concentrated among lower-rated issuers, with nearly two-thirds driven by issuers rated 'B' and below. Meanwhile, investment-grade downgrades fell to 12% of total downgrades in May from 21% in April.
Structured finance: Structured finance ratings improved in May, with stronger upgrade activity and sharply lower defaults supporting stabilization in credit quality, even as CMBS remains a persistent source of weakness.
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