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Credit Trends

Global Issuance Forecast And Financing Conditions Q2 2026: Expansion Still Expected This Year

The war in the Middle East has had a noticeable impact on financial markets, with bond issuance seeing both pullbacks and pull-forwards in March.

The normal pace of issuance slowed for many countries and sectors in March, but U.S. nonfinancials were an exception, rising 85% over March 2025, partly due to still strong totals from hyperscalers.

We anticipate aggregate bond issuance to expand by more than 4% this year, led by nonfinancial corporates.

Downside risks remain high, and if the war and its subsequent economic disruptions continue for an extended period, we could see slight declines in issuance totals.

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This Week In Credit

Health Care Drives Spike In Defaults (July 06, 2026)

Five issuers defaulted last week, including three health care companies. DISH DBS Corp. accounted for the largest default by debt amount after being downgraded to 'D' from 'CCC+' following its Chapter 11 filing.

Positive rating momentum slowed materially, with upgrades more than halving from the previous week. Three of the seven upgrades were in the insurance sector. Downgrades took place across a range of sectors: All but one were on U.S. issuers.

There was a new fallen angel: Global asset management firm Janus Henderson Group PLC was downgraded to 'BB' and removed from CreditWatch on acquisition completion. Getty Images Inc. was downgraded to 'CCC+' on merger termination and liquidity concerns, becoming a new risky credit.

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This Month In Credit

Defaults Rise Despite Overall Improving Rating Trends

Global corporate defaults reached a one-year high in May, driven by a surge in U.S. activity, but the year-to-date total (45) remains below the year to date 2020-2025 average (60), leaving open whether this reflects a sustained upturn or a temporary spike.

Net outlook bias (the proportion of issuers on positive outlooks or CreditWatch positive minus those on negative) has narrowed to -4.0%, its best level since September 2022, driven by a sharp increase (59 basis points) in positive bias in May. 

Downgrades remain concentrated among lower-rated issuers, with nearly two-thirds driven by issuers rated 'B' and below. Meanwhile, investment-grade downgrades fell to 12% of total downgrades in May from 21% in April. 

Structured finance: Structured finance ratings improved in May, with stronger upgrade activity and sharply lower defaults supporting stabilization in credit quality, even as CMBS remains a persistent source of weakness.

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Default & Issuance Forecasts

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