After a year marked by falling prices of polyvinyl chloride resin and no concrete signs of robust growth in regional construction industries, the market does not expect a turnaround in demand for 2026, but expectations for production cuts have been gaining strength.

The increase in PVC trade flow in 2025, with projections for a new record in global exports, was not enough to ease expectations regarding supply, and the key to this lies in prices, as explained by Harry Thomas, director and global head of inorganics and vinyls

"With prices setting 20-year annual average lows for PVC exports in 2025, many producers are shipping at a financial loss this year," Thomas said. "They are attempting to find ways to increase values or possibly lower some participation until greater values arrive."

The Dec. 15, 2025, announcement that Westlake has decided to cease operations at one of its PVC plants has strengthened expectations of rising prices due to lower supply in early 2026.

“I think the important point to note here is the action taken by Westlake," a distributor said. "It indicates that current costs and margins are unsustainable unless producers are willing to take aggressive action, even though immediate pain is high."

If competitive offers from China are forcing other Asian suppliers to find new markets, it is uncertain whether the same will happen with the US. Part of the market believes that US producers should seek alternatives to avoid head-on competition with China in India, but it’s not a consensus.

 Among sources in India, while there has been some discussion regarding the potential for increased PVC imports from the Middle East and the US, opinions remain divided. It appears that China-origin material will continue to dominate the market, especially in the first half of 2026, sources said.

But others see potential upcoming upside for the US, as the absence of BIS and ADD in India increases the chances of allocating additional volumes.

In addition to the increase in ADD in Brazil, the EU's implementation of definitive ADD duties ranging from 58% to 77% on the US in January has made imports uncompetitive. The Mexican government had also decided to initiate an ADD investigation into imports of suspension PVC from the US.

These are not the only uncertainties regarding duties that loom over the market in 2026. Despite the uncertainties, the volume of PVC traded in 2026 is expected to remain high, Thomas forecasts.

"In terms of exports and implications of tariffs in 2026, we are not expecting a significant change in country flows," Thomas said. "We do expect a larger annual export PVC volume, primarily driven by India's growth and PVC imports into India from China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the USA."