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Credit Conditions Europe: The Lowdown on Lockdowns

Extended lockdowns, a slower pace of normalization, and key trading partners embroiled in the same predicament have all contributed to a very sharp downward revision to European economic growth for 2020. We expect a deeper two-quarter recession in the eurozone with full-year growth falling by 7.3%. Top risks remain the pandemic not being contained despite all efforts, a scarcity of financing for indebted corporate borrowers, the re-emergence of global trade tensions including between the EU and U.K., and asymmetric fiscal costs from the pandemic placing renewed pressure on the EU’s cohesion.

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