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Emerging Markets Monthly Highlights: Economic Rout Deepens, Policy Response Ramps Up

A slump in domestic and foreign demand amid lockdowns at home and abroad has pushed EM economies into recession The magnitude of the impact of social distancing measures on activity is beginning to surface in a range of hard and soft economic indicators. The economic recovery will be uneven across EMs, and will depend crucially on the effectiveness of public health and economic responses. The revenue impact of lockdowns has been significant across many sectors. The potential for downgrades is highest in the Homebuilders, Real Estate, Consumer Products and Utilities (see slide 27). We expect the financial pain on corporations and households to show up in the form of rising nonperforming loans, pressuring financial institutions credit quality.

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