S&P Global Ratings
Economic Research
Our economists are responsible for developing the macroeconomic forecasts and risk scenarios used by S&P Global Ratings' analysts during the ratings process, as well as leading key cross-sector and cross-divisional research projects.
Global Economic Q4 2026: Resilient Growth Drives Rates Higher
Resilience continues to rule: global activity has held up better than expected despite shocks to global energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, and the ongoing effects of tariffs and policy uncertainty.
Inflation has picked up, driven by energy prices and steady demand growth. Central banks are nudging rates higher, and long-term bond yields have risen as well, tightening financial conditions.
North America Q3 2026: Resilient to Layered Supply Shocks
We forecast the U.S. economy to grow 2.2% in 2026, a touch higher than 2.1% last year, followed by below-potential growth in 2027 and 2028.
The central macroeconomic risk remains the drawn-out Middle East war, which is keeping inflation high and threatening purchasing power and supply chain dynamics well beyond crude oil.
Europe Q4 2026: Resilient Demand Meets Persistent Pressure
Resilient demand is lifting our 2026 growth expectations, but inflation pressure and higher rates persist. S&P Global Ratings expects the eurozone and U.K. economies to grow by 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively, in 2026, and by 1.1% in 2027. Compared with our previous forecast, we have revised growth higher for 2026, while the outlook for later years remains broadly unchanged. At the same time, we expect slightly lower inflation in 2026 and higher inflation in 2027 and 2028 than previously estimated.
Asia-Pacific Q4 2026: Exports, Domestic Demand Will Shore Up Growth
Stress in the global energy sector is unlikely to derail robust expansion among Asia-Pacific economies. Overall, our baseline global outlook is for growth to remain steady in 2026 and 2027. International AI-related investment is a boon for the region's tech exports and, outside China, domestic demand remains resilient.
Our projection for strong growth doesn't mask the challenges. Energy prices are likely to remain high in coming months and monetary tightening in the U.S. will be a hurdle. There is also a risk that AI investment weakens.
Emerging Markets Q4 2026: Mounting External Shocks Will Test Resilience
S&P Global Ratings projects slower GDP growth in 2026 than in 2025 in most major emerging markets (EMs), followed by a modest recovery in 2027. Growth so far this year has been mixed. EMs that have weakened the most are those most directly affected by the Middle East war (such as Saudi Arabia), or indirectly through higher energy prices (Chile, Peru, and the Philippines). EMs with the strongest growth are mostly those tied to the AI-related trade (Vietnam and Malaysia).