Credit Market Research
Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
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Credit Trends
Global Refinancing: Brisk Issuance Pushes Speculative-Grade Maturity Peak Out To 2031
The peak maturity year for speculative-grade nonfinancial corporate debt has been pushed out to 2031 globally, in a rapid shift from 2029 in April and 2028 in January of this year.
A surge of new bond issuance in the first half of 2026, led by fundraising activity to support the buildout of AI and digital infrastructure, boosted global nonfinancial maturities in 2031, while steady refinancing activity reduced speculative-grade maturities through 2029.
While we view near-term maturities as increasingly manageable, potential challenges remain on the horizon--maturities of debt rated 'B-' and lower rise to $268.8 billion in 2028, much of which is concentrated in the U.S. and in the healthcare, high technology, and media and entertainment sectors.
This Week In Credit
Fallen Angels And Rising Stars In Focus (Sept. 14, 2026)
Positive rating actions slightly outpaced negative ones last week, yet downgrades increased to seven from three the previous week. Consumer products led downgrades, including both fallen angels.
The two fallen angels increased the year-to-date total to 13, higher than the 10 recorded at the same point last year. Both were U.S.-based companies, we lowered our ratings on both companies to 'BB+' from 'BBB-': Flowers Foods Inc. on weak operating performance, and Leggett & Platt Inc. on its acquisition by Somnigroup International Inc.
There were two rising stars last week, bringing the year-to-date total to 19. We raised our ratings on both issuers to 'BBB-': Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. on expected deleveraging, and QazaqGaz NC JSC, following Kazakhstan's sovereign upgrade.
This Month In Credit
Broad Improvement Masks Lower-Rated Pressure
Rating momentum notably improved in June with upgrades more than doubling and a sharp increase in the share of investment-grade upgrades, signaling strengthening fundamentals among higher-quality issuers. There were also five rising stars in June-- the highest monthly total since December 2025.
Global corporate defaults retreated sharply in June, reversing May’s temporary spike and reinforcing our view that default activity remains contained. Despite this, we still forecast a modest increase in defaults as geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties persist.
The weakest links total increased in June by nearly 5%, its highest level since December 2025. Nearly 70% of new additions were concentrated in four sectors, highlighting ongoing rating pressure among lower-rated issuers.
Structured finance: Credit performance remained broadly positive in June, though U.S. collateralized loan obligation (CLO) downgrades increased. Those downgrades largely reflected mounting pressure in lower-rated tranches, as failing cash flows and elevated exposure to 'CCC' and defaulted assets weakened credit support.
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