Credit Market Research
Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
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Credit Trends
What Will Drive Primary Market Issuance In 2026?
After expected growth of 12% in 2025, we forecast that global issuance growth will slow to roughly 5% in 2026.
Investment-grade bond issuance in the technology sector had exceeded $200 billion by mid-November. We expect debt financing will remain a key component in the 2026 funding mix.
Refinancing for issuers rated 'CCC+' and below has lagged behind, resulting in 2026 maturities that are more than twice as high than those of 'B-' rated issuers.
This Week In Credit
Rating Actions Tilt Positive
Positive rating actions outweighed negative ones last week, with all five actions from the U.S. and four in the ‘CCC’ category. The two downgrades affected oil and gas entities, both downgraded from ‘CCC+’. The three upgrades were in high tech, consumer products, and homebuilders/real estate.
Positive outlook revisions and CreditWatch placements exceeded negative ones for the third straight week. Three of the positive actions last week were on Greek banks, supported by receding economic risk and resilient profitability.
Last week saw one default--of U.S.-based YS Garments LLC in the consumer products sector--following a distressed exchange, which brings the year‑to‑date total to six.
This Month In Credit
Signs Of Deterioration
Downgrades outnumbered upgrades as monthly speculative-grade downgrades increased to their highest level since June 2025, driven by issuers rated 'B' or below, accounting for 60% of December’s downgrades.
Pressure remains at the lower end as negative bias for issuers rated 'B-' and below increased by 1.3 percentage points last month, its largest rise since May 2025, suggesting the number of downgrades among lower-rated entities could remain elevated.
In a more positive sign, aggregate net bias improved to its strongest level since April, primarily driven by a third consecutive monthly increase in positive bias to its best level since March 2025.
Structured finance: Following an increase in corporate downgrades to 'CCC+' or below, the U.S. broadly syndicated loan CLOs 'CCC' exposure increased in December to 5.8%. Meanwhile, European exposure to obligors rated 'CCC' also increased, but to a lesser extent.
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