Credit Market Research
Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
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Credit Trends
Global Financing Conditions: Issuance Growth Could Slow In 2026 As Strains Persist
Global economic growth and bond issuance remained resilient in 2025 through bouts of heightened market risk, and we expect this to continue in 2026, though issuance growth could slow to 4.8%.
A healthy refinancing pipeline and accelerating M&A activity should support corporate (including financial services) issuance growth.
A multiyear AI and data center investment phase has started, which will likely continue to boost issuance by the high-tech sector, though the precise timing and extent of future debt issuance are far from certain.
As we enter the latter phase of this credit cycle, we maintain the possibility for issuance to decline in our downside scenario, where economic growth slows, geopolitical risks finally shake market confidence, or China's issuance growth slows amid efforts to reduce certain debt.
This Week In Credit
Chemicals Sector Leads Downgrades
Downgrades increased to 11 last week, outnumbering the four upgrades. Seven of the downgrades were entities in the chemicals sector, including a new fallen angel, Alpek S.A.B. de C.V. This brings the year-to-date total of fallen angels to three, exceeding the count at this time last year (zero).
Negative outlook changes more than doubled, outnumbering positive ones for the first time in six weeks. These changes spanned 11 sectors, with the chemicals, packaging, and environmental services sector recording the most negative changes (five).
There was just one default involving U.S.-based restaurant franchisee, GPS Hospitality Holding Co. LLC, due to a missed payment.
This Month In Credit
Signs Of Deterioration
Downgrades outnumbered upgrades as monthly speculative-grade downgrades increased to their highest level since June 2025, driven by issuers rated 'B' or below, accounting for 60% of December’s downgrades.
Pressure remains at the lower end as negative bias for issuers rated 'B-' and below increased by 1.3 percentage points last month, its largest rise since May 2025, suggesting the number of downgrades among lower-rated entities could remain elevated.
In a more positive sign, aggregate net bias improved to its strongest level since April, primarily driven by a third consecutive monthly increase in positive bias to its best level since March 2025.
Structured finance: Following an increase in corporate downgrades to 'CCC+' or below, the U.S. broadly syndicated loan CLOs 'CCC' exposure increased in December to 5.8%. Meanwhile, European exposure to obligors rated 'CCC' also increased, but to a lesser extent.
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