Sustainable Bond Outlook Midyear 2026: Stability In A Maturing Market
- S&P Global Ratings still expects 2026 global sustainable bond issuance to reach $800 billion-$900 billion, as the second quarter saw the highest quarterly issuance volume since first-quarter 2024, driven primarily by green bonds in Europe.
- European green bond issuance is likely to remain a key growth driver for sustainable bonds globally, and we expect taxonomy-aligned European green bonds to continue expanding rapidly through year-end.
- We anticipate sovereign issuance volumes will exceed 2025--given that $78 billion was already issued in first-half 2026, compared with $99 billion for full-year 2025--highlighting the continued importance of sustainable bond issuance within sovereign debt markets.
- In our view, second-half 2026 volumes will be stable, underpinned by a continued focus on renewable and nuclear energy, in part to address recent energy crises, and also benefitting from emerging labels like transition, nature, biodiversity, and blue bonds.
Climate Transition Risk
Sustainable Finance FAQ
How S&P Global Ratings Supports Credibility and Transparency in Transition Financing
Sustainable finance is about more than funding activities and investments that already foster a greener, low-carbon, and more climate-resilient future in alignment with the Paris Agreement. It's also about financing those that aren't yet compatible to the same degree but do contribute to a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
In our inaugural Sustainability FAQ, we answer market participants’ questions on how we view green and transition financing through our coverage and capabilities.
Physical Climate Risk
Sustainability Insights
New Routes: Assessing Transportation Infrastructure's Vulnerability to Physical Risks
Data and scenario analyses show that many transportation infrastructure assets could face worsening climate hazard exposure by the 2050s, while progress on adaptation and resilience varies.
This research examines the vulnerability of rated transportation infrastructure—railways, roads, ports, and airports—to physical climate risks. We aim to provide insights into how worsening climate hazards might influence key credit factors for transportation infrastructure companies in our rated universe of corporate and project finance entities, and how they are preparing for and managing these risks.
Other Environmental Factors
Sustainability Insights
Global Company Emissions Grow, Intensities Decline
Our analysis is based on trends over 2016-2023, using data from S&P Global Sustainable1 on a representative cohort of over 11,000 companies that have annual data available for each year. This analysis aims to provide insights into the industry groups that are most exposed to climate transition risks such as policy, technology, and market changes in relation to potential shifts toward a low-carbon economy. At the same time, the financial impact of environmental risks on the sector and our ratings has so far been negligible, reflecting a lack of stringent environmental regulations and little change in consumers' buying behavior.
Full results of our analysis and details on our methodology are presented in "Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A Deep Dive Into Trends For Global Industries," Sept. 18, 2025.
White Paper
Credit Implications of Global Aging: A Complex Interplay
Aging populations, like other global megatrends such as increasing digitalization, are gradually reshaping our world, and often in unpredictable ways, as we describe in our White Paper: Assessing How Megatrends May Influence Credit Ratings, published April 18, 2024. Global aging, typically stemming from declining birth rates and longer life expectancies, is a measurable trend in most geographies. Yet it's difficult to predict the likely credit impacts, how material they may be, and when they might unfold. Some credit impacts have already emerged while others may take several years.
Sustainable Finance
Sustainability Insights
Webinar Debrief: Can Data Centers Be Green?
Our recent webinar "Can Data Centers Be Green?" created a buzz among investors and was well attended. In the following Webinar Debrief report, S&P Global Ratings summarizes the key messages from the webinar and answer some of the many questions we received from attendees.
Key takeaways:
- The rapid expansion of digital infrastructure is driving unprecedented demand for electricity and water, creating new sustainability challenges.
- Companies are increasingly using debt to finance their data center expansions, including using labelled green or sustainable bond or loan frameworks.
- The intensity of emissions from power, water use, and energy efficiency at data centers are the main drivers when assessing the Shade of Green in our Second Party Opinions (SPOs), though other aspects may also be important depending on the local context or value chain.
Materiality
Sustainability Insights
ESG In Credit Ratings 2025 In Review: Physical Risk-Driven Rating Actions Increased
- ESG-related rating actions rose 11% in 2025 to 182, reversing the decline seen in 2024. This increase was driven almost exclusively by governance factors, which accounted for 80% of all ESG-related rating activity (up from 77% in 2024).
- ESG-related rating actions remained predominantly negative in 2025, with 153 negative actions versus 27 positive ones. Sovereign issuers were the only sector in which ESG related actions were net positive.
- Physical climate risks drove 29 rating actions in 2025, up 32% from 2024, with the increase pointing to rising near-term credit sensitivity to acute weather events.
Shades of Green
Sustainability Insights
Climate Transition Trends: A Crude Reality For Oil And Gas
Most oil and gas companies globally are planning to reduce emissions from their own operations. Yet many of them still focus on activities that are incompatible with a low-carbon, climate-resilient future. S&P Global Ratings undertook Climate Transition Assessments on a sample of 81 oil and gas companies representing 50% of the world's listed oil and gas assets. Our Shades of Green represent our qualitative opinion of how consistent a company’s activities are with a low-carbon, climate-resilient future.
Social & Governance