Credit Market Research
Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
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Global Issuance Forecast And Financing Conditions Q2 2026: Expansion Still Expected This Year
The war in the Middle East has had a noticeable impact on financial markets, with bond issuance seeing both pullbacks and pull-forwards in March.
The normal pace of issuance slowed for many countries and sectors in March, but U.S. nonfinancials were an exception, rising 85% over March 2025, partly due to still strong totals from hyperscalers.
We anticipate aggregate bond issuance to expand by more than 4% this year, led by nonfinancial corporates.
Downside risks remain high, and if the war and its subsequent economic disruptions continue for an extended period, we could see slight declines in issuance totals.
This Week In Credit
Upgrades Lead For Third Consecutive Week (June 29, 2026)
Positive momentum extended for a third week, with upgrades more than double downgrades last week. Downgrades were almost entirely in speculative grade (all but one), while upgrades were more balanced. Actions were spread across sectors.
There was a new rising star: Global cruise operator, Carnival Corp., was upgraded to 'BBB-' from 'BB+' on strong forward bookings and expected credit measure improvement.
There was one default last week: Biscuit Holding S.A.S., which manufactures and sells biscuits, was downgraded to 'SD' (selective default) from 'CCC-' on a distressed exchange.
This Month In Credit
Defaults Rise Despite Overall Improving Rating Trends
Global corporate defaults reached a one-year high in May, driven by a surge in U.S. activity, but the year-to-date total (45) remains below the year to date 2020-2025 average (60), leaving open whether this reflects a sustained upturn or a temporary spike.
Net outlook bias (the proportion of issuers on positive outlooks or CreditWatch positive minus those on negative) has narrowed to -4.0%, its best level since September 2022, driven by a sharp increase (59 basis points) in positive bias in May.
Downgrades remain concentrated among lower-rated issuers, with nearly two-thirds driven by issuers rated 'B' and below. Meanwhile, investment-grade downgrades fell to 12% of total downgrades in May from 21% in April.
Structured finance: Structured finance ratings improved in May, with stronger upgrade activity and sharply lower defaults supporting stabilization in credit quality, even as CMBS remains a persistent source of weakness.
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