Credit Market Research
Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
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Global Issuance Forecast And Financing Conditions Q2 2026: Expansion Still Expected This Year
The war in the Middle East has had a noticeable impact on financial markets, with bond issuance seeing both pullbacks and pull-forwards in March.
The normal pace of issuance slowed for many countries and sectors in March, but U.S. nonfinancials were an exception, rising 85% over March 2025, partly due to still strong totals from hyperscalers.
We anticipate aggregate bond issuance to expand by more than 4% this year, led by nonfinancial corporates.
Downside risks remain high, and if the war and its subsequent economic disruptions continue for an extended period, we could see slight declines in issuance totals.
This Week In Credit
Rebound In Rating Activity
Rating activity picked up from the previous week, with upgrades tripling to 12 and outpacing downgrades--which increased to nine from four.
The oil and gas sector led upgrade activity, with three upgrades, followed by media and entertainment, with two upgrades. We upgraded Deutsche Telekom AG to 'A-' from 'BBB+', marking the largest rating action by rated debt volume during the week. Downgrades were more broadly distributed across sectors, led by consumer products, with two downgrades.
Two defaults were recorded last week. We downgraded Colisee Group SAS, a nursing home operator, to 'SD' (selective default) from 'CCC-' following a debt exchange transaction, we subsequently upgraded it to 'CCC+' after restructuring. We downgraded United FP Holdings LLC, a fitness clubs developer and operator, to 'D' (default) from 'CCC-' on missed interest payments and an announced forbearance agreement.
This Month In Credit
Conflicting Signals As Uncertainty Grows
Despite upgrades outnumbering downgrades, investment-grade downgrades increased to 18--the greatest total since March 2022--and exceeded investment-grade upgrades for the first time in six months.
Positive momentum in net outlook bias halted following five consecutive months of improvement, primarily driven by a weakening in speculative-grade net bias.
Global corporate defaults declined to six last month, as year-to-date defaults total 24, below 26 over the same period in 2025. Notably, Europe is the only region where yearto-date defaults (five) have declined versus last year (eight).
Structured finance: Rating activity normalized in March following February’s RMBS‑driven upgrade surge, with momentum shifting toward upgrad
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