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Credit Trends

Global Issuance Forecast And Financing Conditions Q2 2026: Expansion Still Expected This Year

The war in the Middle East has had a noticeable impact on financial markets, with bond issuance seeing both pullbacks and pull-forwards in March.

The normal pace of issuance slowed for many countries and sectors in March, but U.S. nonfinancials were an exception, rising 85% over March 2025, partly due to still strong totals from hyperscalers.

We anticipate aggregate bond issuance to expand by more than 4% this year, led by nonfinancial corporates.

Downside risks remain high, and if the war and its subsequent economic disruptions continue for an extended period, we could see slight declines in issuance totals.

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This Week In Credit

Positive Momentum Continues (June 22, 2026)

Upgrades more than doubled downgrades for the second consecutive week, though rating activity slowed from previous highs.  

There were two new rising stars: Metro AG (a food retailer) and CrowdStrike (a cybersecurity solutions provider) were upgraded to 'BBB-' from 'BB+', driven by parental support and strong growth prospects, respectively. 

Mountain Province Diamonds Inc., which mines and markets rough diamonds, was downgraded to 'SD' from 'CCC-' on a deferred interest payment--the only default last week.

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This Month In Credit

Defaults Rise Despite Overall Improving Rating Trends

Global corporate defaults reached a one-year high in May, driven by a surge in U.S. activity, but the year-to-date total (45) remains below the year to date 2020-2025 average (60), leaving open whether this reflects a sustained upturn or a temporary spike.

Net outlook bias (the proportion of issuers on positive outlooks or CreditWatch positive minus those on negative) has narrowed to -4.0%, its best level since September 2022, driven by a sharp increase (59 basis points) in positive bias in May. 

Downgrades remain concentrated among lower-rated issuers, with nearly two-thirds driven by issuers rated 'B' and below. Meanwhile, investment-grade downgrades fell to 12% of total downgrades in May from 21% in April. 

Structured finance: Structured finance ratings improved in May, with stronger upgrade activity and sharply lower defaults supporting stabilization in credit quality, even as CMBS remains a persistent source of weakness.

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Default & Issuance Forecasts

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S&P Global Ratings expects additional credit deterioration in 2024, largely at the lower end of the ratings scale. An environment of increasingly rapid change requires financial market participants to adapt their playbooks.
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