Credit Market Research
Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
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Global Issuance Forecast And Financing Conditions Q2 2026: Expansion Still Expected This Year
The war in the Middle East has had a noticeable impact on financial markets, with bond issuance seeing both pullbacks and pull-forwards in March.
The normal pace of issuance slowed for many countries and sectors in March, but U.S. nonfinancials were an exception, rising 85% over March 2025, partly due to still strong totals from hyperscalers.
We anticipate aggregate bond issuance to expand by more than 4% this year, led by nonfinancial corporates.
Downside risks remain high, and if the war and its subsequent economic disruptions continue for an extended period, we could see slight declines in issuance totals.
This Week In Credit
The Second Default-Free Week Of 2026
There were no defaults last week--for the first week since the end of March. Year-todate defaults total 45, behind the 55 seen at this point in 2025.
Downgrades continue to be concentrated among entities rated 'B' or below. Five of the seven issuers downgraded last week are now rated 'CCC+' or below. This includes one downgrade to 'CC'--System1 Inc.--because of an announced debt restructuring.
Upgrades equaled downgrades for the second week in a row, with sectoral concentration in high technology and consumer products, each contributing two out of a total of seven upgrades.
This Month In Credit
Speculative-Grade Downgrades Jump
Net outlook bias (the proportion of issuers on positive outlooks or CreditWatch positive minus those on negative) has narrowed to -4.2%, its best level since September 2022, driven by a sharp drop (57 points) in negative bias in April.
Global corporate defaults also fell--declining for the third consecutive month to total four in April. However, S&P Global Ratings expects the default rate to increase over the next 12 months, rising to 4.0% in the U.S. and 3.75% in Europe by March 2027.
Downgrades increased last month, driven by a near doubling in speculative-grade downgrades, primarily of entities rated 'B' and below. Consequently, downgrades to the 'CCC+' and below category increased to nine--the greatest monthly amount since December 2025.
Structured finance: The one‑month average change in credit quality turned negative in April for the first time since January, largely reflecting downgrades outpacing upgrades in CMBS and CLOs and multinotch downgrades in RMBS and ABS.
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