Credit Market Research
Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
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Credit Trends
Global Financing Conditions: Issuance Growth Could Slow In 2026 As Strains Persist
Global economic growth and bond issuance remained resilient in 2025 through bouts of heightened market risk, and we expect this to continue in 2026, though issuance growth could slow to 4.8%.
A healthy refinancing pipeline and accelerating M&A activity should support corporate (including financial services) issuance growth.
A multiyear AI and data center investment phase has started, which will likely continue to boost issuance by the high-tech sector, though the precise timing and extent of future debt issuance are far from certain.
As we enter the latter phase of this credit cycle, we maintain the possibility for issuance to decline in our downside scenario, where economic growth slows, geopolitical risks finally shake market confidence, or China's issuance growth slows amid efforts to reduce certain debt.
This Week In Credit
First Default-Free Week For 2026
No defaults were recorded last week, for the first time since the end of December 2025.
Positive momentum continued, with upgrades more than doubling downgrades. Upgrades were mainly to speculative-grade issuers across several sectors. We also upgraded two sovereigns. We raised our rating on Ireland to ‘AA+’ from ‘AA’ on its stronger economic and fiscal profiles, and we upgraded Bolivia to ‘CCC+’ from ‘CCC-’ to reflect the government’s reduced debt service payments.
There were fewer downgrades than in the previous week. These included two Austrian banks, the ratings on which we lowered because of increased economic risk.
This Month In Credit
Rising Strains Amid Market Volatility
Downgrades increased to 31 in February, outnumbering upgrades by more than onethird. Chemicals, packaging, and environmental services and consumer products accounted for more than 50% of the downgrades.
Potential fallen angels--issuers rated 'BBB-' with negative outlooks or ratings on CreditWatch negative--increased to 51, the highest total since August 2021. Utilities (nine) and chemicals, packaging, and environmental services (six) are the two sectors with the highest number of issuers at risk of being downgraded to speculative-grade.
Monthly corporate defaults declined to eight in February, bringing the year-to-date total to 18, slightly above 17 last February. Furthermore, the share of repeat defaulters reached 50% year-to-date.
U.S. BSL CLO exposure to obligors rated 'CCC' increased to 5.18% as of Feb. 24, 2026, and European exposure declined to 4.5% as of Feb. 25, 2026.
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