Music Playing, Noise Rising
Global Credit Outlook 2026
The sustained period of resilient global credit conditions looks set to continue in 2026, as economic growth holds up, supported in part by tech investments.
Overview
As we step into 2026, the chorus of voices warning of an impending credit downturn is getting louder. And yet, we see a number of factors that point to a more balanced--dare we say, resilient--picture ahead. This includes resilient economies, extended maturities for issuers, and improved interest rates.
At the same time, the rapid scale of AI fundraising, and valuations attained by players, have sparked concerns of possible hubris or the emergence of new risks, with the ultimate transformational nature of AI’s outcomes still anyone’s guess.
Against this backdrop, broader policy uncertainty represents a key risk to the outlook and a potential trigger for market volatility. Trade tensions may have peaked and markets have absorbed them, at least for now. But they are symptomatic of a long-term shift toward a more transactional and multipolar world order which will have longer term credit implications.
Questions That Matter
Regional Credit Conditions
S&P Global Ratings’ Global Credit Outlook 2026 builds on the collective insights from our regional and global Credit Conditions Committees (CCCs), which meet quarterly to review conditions in Asia-Pacific, Emerging Markets, Europe, and North America, cascading into our global coverage. At the CCCs, we evaluate the trends affecting economies, industries, and credit markets—to identify our base-case assumptions and rank the exogenous risks that underpin our credit ratings and inform potential rating changes across various asset classes.