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Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
With 15 defaults in February, the 2024 global corporate default tally rose to 29, the highest year-to-date default count since 2009. Defaults in Europe are well above previous year-to-date totals, at eight—more than double the total of three at this point in 2023. By sector, 40% of defaults in February came from either heath care or media and entertainment, with three each.
READ MOREThe Federal Reserve (Fed)’s monetary policy announcement on Wednesday will be the most closely watched event this week. Market participants overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold rates, a view that is reinforced by the uptick in last week’s inflation reading. The Bank of Japan (Tuesday) and the Bank of England (Thursday) will also announce their interest rate decisions, following the publication of U.K. consumer and producer prices on Wednesday. Also on the data front, flash purchasing managers’ indices will be published on Thursday for a wide range of economies.
READ MORESpeculative-grade issuers are broadly benefiting from rebounding issuance and tightening credit spreads, but some weaker credits continue to struggle.
The number of weakest links declined in January, resulting more from credit deterioration (defaults) than meaningful credit improvement.
Leverage pressures may be receding--lower leverage was a factor in nearly twice as many new potential upgrades in January than in December.
Higher-rated rating trends continue to be more favorable, with three rising stars newly upgraded to investment-grade from speculative-grade, including NASCAR Holdings LLC, while there were no fallen angels or new potential fallen angels.
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