Credit Market Research
Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
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Credit Trends
What Will Drive Primary Market Issuance In 2026?
After expected growth of 12% in 2025, we forecast that global issuance growth will slow to roughly 5% in 2026.
Investment-grade bond issuance in the technology sector had exceeded $200 billion by mid-November. We expect debt financing will remain a key component in the 2026 funding mix.
Refinancing for issuers rated 'CCC+' and below has lagged behind, resulting in 2026 maturities that are more than twice as high than those of 'B-' rated issuers.
This Week In Credit
First Rising Stars Of 2026
Last week upgrades increased to six, primarily including issuers in the utility sector (three). Upgrades also included the year's first two rising stars; U.S.-based utilities issuer Calpine Corp. and India-based financial institution Shriram Finance Ltd.
Meanwhile, all four downgrades were to U.S.-based issuers across four sectors. This included a downgrade to consumer products issuer Torrid LLC, with our ratings on Torrid being lowered to 'CCC+'.
There was one default last week (down from two in the previous week); U.S.-based transportation company Reception Purchaser LLC on chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.
This Month In Credit
Potential Fallen Angels Rise
Downgrades in October outnumbered upgrades for the first time since June, as investment-grade downgrades increased to their highest level since May. Potential fallen angels edged upward for the third month in a row to 39, reaching their highest total since February 2023.
On a positive note, net bias improved to its best level since May, primarily driven by a sharp (25 basis points) decrease in negative bias.
New additions to weakest links declined to eight last month, but half of the new entrants are in the high technology sector (four).
Structured finance: CLO downgrades increased to 27 last month from 15 in September, although there have been no defaults since August. Meanwhile, exposure to corporate obligors rated 'CCC' within CLOs continued to increase.
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