Credit Market Research
Our credit market research encompasses ratings performance indicators (including upgrades and downgrades, defaults, outlook changes, weakest links, rising stars, and fallen angels) alongside default and issuance forecasts and financing conditions coverage.
Trending
Credit Trends
Global Issuance Forecast And Financing Conditions Q2 2026: Expansion Still Expected This Year
The war in the Middle East has had a noticeable impact on financial markets, with bond issuance seeing both pullbacks and pull-forwards in March.
The normal pace of issuance slowed for many countries and sectors in March, but U.S. nonfinancials were an exception, rising 85% over March 2025, partly due to still strong totals from hyperscalers.
We anticipate aggregate bond issuance to expand by more than 4% this year, led by nonfinancial corporates.
Downside risks remain high, and if the war and its subsequent economic disruptions continue for an extended period, we could see slight declines in issuance totals.
This Week In Credit
Downgrades More Than Doubled
Rating activity was up from the previous week, with a negative tilt, as downgrades jumped to a weekly record year-to-date. Downgrades were spread across various sectors, led by consumer products, with three. There were also two sovereign downgrades, on Belgium and Slovakia.
There was one new rising star, bringing this year’s total to nine. NOVA Chemicals Corp., which manufactures polyethylene and ethylene-based products, was upgraded to 'BBB-' from 'BB-' on its acquisition by Borouge Group International.
Tullow Oil PLC was the only default last week. We downgraded it to 'D' on completion of debt restructuring, which we viewed as distressed and tantamount to default.
This Month In Credit
Conflicting Signals As Uncertainty Grows
Despite upgrades outnumbering downgrades, investment-grade downgrades increased to 18--the greatest total since March 2022--and exceeded investment-grade upgrades for the first time in six months.
Positive momentum in net outlook bias halted following five consecutive months of improvement, primarily driven by a weakening in speculative-grade net bias.
Global corporate defaults declined to six last month, as year-to-date defaults total 24, below 26 over the same period in 2025. Notably, Europe is the only region where yearto-date defaults (five) have declined versus last year (eight).
Structured finance: Rating activity normalized in March following February’s RMBS‑driven upgrade surge, with momentum shifting toward upgrad
Default & Issuance Forecasts
Default & Transition Studies
Ratings Performance
Latest Research
Take a look at all of our latest credit market research.