Global Credit Outlook: Back on Track?
COVID-19 will continue to put a heavy strain on global credit conditions in 2021. Even if a vaccine becomes widely available by midyear, which we assume in our baseline, containment of the pandemic will be very uneven worldwide. Until then, further waves of COVID-19 cases, requiring renewed containment measures, may harm a fragile economic recovery and lead to further credit deterioration, particularly in sectors most exposed to social distancing and travel restrictions.
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Global Economic Outlook: Limping Into A Brighter 2021
A new surge in COVID-19 cases has led to a reimposition of lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe, halting a robust recovery. East Asia has been relatively unscathed. Activity remains uneven. – With momentum fading, we are forecasting a weaker start to 2021, with full year GDP growth at 5.0% (down 30 basis points from previously); our 2022-23 GDP forecast is broadly unchanged.
20 Questions That Matter
Click here to read all answers.Regional Credit Conditions
Credit conditions are broadly favorable (or improving) across the globe—with some regional variation—following positive news about progress in developing a coronavirus vaccine, which augurs well for a faster recovery over the second half of 2021. Still, short-term risks loom, especially as COVID-19 cases surge in many countries as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches.