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Emerging and Established Risks
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Our structured finance research page offers in-depth insights into market trends across traditional sectors, including ABS, RMBS, CMBS, CLOs, and other structured credit, together with coverage of complex, non-traditional transactions that draw on multidisciplinary expertise.
As AI ambitions accelerate, hyperscalers are fueling unprecedented demand for data centers, keeping fundamentals strong despite constrained power supply in key markets. Operators are poised to benefit from low vacancies and rising pricing, but risks remain, ranging from tenant credit exposure and bespoke lease structures to construction delays and evolving technology. Financing needs are massive, with over $900 billion projected through 2029, driving growth in securitization, private credit, and project finance. While overbuilding and obsolescence risks loom longer term, leading tech firms with diversified revenue and deep resources are best positioned to weather volatility and sustain AI-driven expansion.
Consumer spending—the backbone of U.S. economic growth and an increasingly critical driver for China—faces mounting challenges in 2026. U.S. consumption growth is projected to slow to 2.0%, pressured by weaker real incomes, a softening labor market, and higher debt burdens, despite strong household balance sheets and temporary tax refund boosts. In China, modest income gains, property market stress, and limited policy support point to continued subdued consumption, leaving exports to shoulder growth. While upside surprises are possible if housing markets stabilize or fiscal support expands, structural headwinds suggest both economies will struggle to rely on consumers as engines of growth next year.
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