Governments
An ever evolving and dynamic geopolitical scenario continues to shape the future of global economic growth. Its consequences affect all aspects and actors in the private and public sector across the world. Government’s preparedness, capacity, effectiveness and speed of response will prove crucial to go through these diverse sets of conditions. Here you will find our insights about governments and public sector entities around the world, its challenges ahead and our views on where they stand in the face of current and future market developments.
Sovereign Debt 2026: The Bond Glut Continues
We estimate sovereigns' long-term borrowing will reach $14.1 trillion in 2026, a 5% increase on 2025 and double that of 2019. The U.S. will account for almost 40% of global long-term issuance, raising its 2026 borrowing by $500 billion, to $5.3 trillion, while China remains the second-largest sovereign issuer with the equivalent of $2.5 trillion. In Europe, Germany’s borrowing is set to rise substantially after its prolonged fiscal restraint.
Subnational Government Outlook 2026: Emerging Markets Resilient So Far While Market Access Diverges
Despite persistent global geopolitical and economic uncertainties that could generate downside risk, S&P Global Ratings doesn't expect meaningful changes in emerging market local and regional government financial and borrowing trends in 2026. However, most of the rated EM subnational governments are in speculative-grade category, and consequently, more vulnerable than their higher rated counterparts.
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