Credit Conditions
Our regional and global Credit Conditions Committees—and the research publications we produce—provide financial market participants around the world with an essential resource for identifying and understanding prevailing and potential credit risks.
Assessing Global Macro-Credit Risks
As an assessment of the external operating environment, our regional and global Credit Conditions Committee forums—covering Asia-Pacific, Emerging Markets, Europe, and North America, which cascade into our global coverage—form an integral part of S&P Global Ratings’ credit rating analysis.
At the CCCs, our senior researchers, economists, and analysts (covering corporates, financial institutions, insurance, structured finance, sovereigns, and U.S. public finance) meet each quarter to evaluate the trends affecting the current and future states of economies, industries, and credit markets. The CCCs identify base case and downside scenarios, and rank exogenous risks. These views are cascaded to our analytical teams to inform their rating deliberations.
Our quarterly and special CCC reports crystallize the Committees’ conclusions, backed by a host of proprietary data, and with an eye toward helping investors make decisions—providing financial market participants around the world with a primary resource for identifying and understanding prevailing and potential credit risks.
Global
Global Credit Outlook 2026: Music Playing, Noise Rising
As we step into 2026, the chorus of voices warning of an impending credit downturn is getting louder. And yet, we see a number of factors that point to a more balanced--dare we say, resilient--picture ahead. This includes resilient economies, extended maturities for issuers, and improved interest rates.
At the same time, the rapid scale of AI fundraising, and valuations attained by players, have sparked concerns of possible hubris or the emergence of new risks, with the ultimate transformational nature of AI’s outcomes still anyone’s guess.
Against this backdrop, broader policy uncertainty represents a key risk to the outlook and a potential trigger for market volatility. Trade tensions may have peaked and markets have absorbed them, at least for now. But they are symptomatic of a long-term shift toward a more transactional and multipolar world order which will have longer term credit implications.
North America
Credit Conditions North America Q1 2026: Favorable Yet Fragile
Borrowers in North America will likely enjoy favorable credit conditions in the near term, amid tight spreads and falling policy interest rates. A sudden slowdown in the surge of AI-related spending could have systemic implications for financial markets. Credit quality in segments of the private market is slipping.
Europe
Credit Conditions Europe Q1 2026: Tr(e)ading A Narrow Path
Modest earnings growth, generally healthy private-sector balance sheets, and favorable financing conditions underpin a resilient rating outlook for most sectors. Concerns still center on U.S. trade policy and adversarial global politics exposing vulnerabilities in Europe's democracies, supply chains, and ability to stabilize public debt.
Asia-Pacific
Credit Conditions Asia-Pacific Q1 2026: More Growth, More Divergence
Asia-Pacific credit conditions should be steady entering 2026, amid easing trade uncertainty, supportive financing conditions, and strong growth momentum. Although high tariffs dilute export competitiveness, strong demand for semiconductors and electronics cushions the trade blow. Strong domestic consumption (outside China) also supports growth. The net rating outlook bias of Asia-Pacific issuers is steady at negative 4% as of end-October 2025.
Emerging Markets
Credit Conditions Emerging Markets Q1 2026: Bright Prospects, Storm Clouds
Supportive financing conditions for emerging markets (EMs) should persist. S&P Global Ratings expects most EMs will remain resilient, albeit with divergent growth trajectories. Markets tolerance for geopolitical uncertainty may mask vulnerabilities that leave EMs susceptible to contagion from external shocks, such as asset price corrections.
Credit Cycle Indicator
Q4 2025: A Credit Squeeze Could Come
Our Credit Cycle Indicators--both globally and across most regions--are declining as trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty take a toll on macro fundamentals.
An escalation of these tensions could exacerbate or accelerate the credit correction.
While the household subindicator seems to be emerging from a trough, global uncertainty poses a risk to consumer sentiment. Corporate conditions face strains from policy uncertainties and soft demand.
Latest Research
Take a look at all of our latest credit conditions research.