Summary
S&P Global Ratings outlook for the global banking sector points to relative ratings stability. However, we have identified four key downside risks that could alter this perspective: a spillover from the tariff shock to the real economy; an escalation in geopolitical risks; a weakening in the effectiveness of bank regulatory requirements; and evolving risks related to new technologies and climate change. Materialization of these risk factors may increase credit differentiation, as banks' ability to adapt could lead to positive or negative outcomes. We estimate global banks' credit losses will rise by around 14% to around US$755 billion in 2025, but these credit losses are well within our base case at current rating levels for most banks.
S&P Global Ratings Financial Institutions analysts held a live, interactive webinar on Wednesday, July 16, 2025. They discussed key themes and trends, take audience questions, and poll audience views on our Global Banks Midyear Outlook for 2025.
Speakers:
- Brendan Browne – Managing Director and Sector Lead, North America, Financial Institutions Ratings
- Mohamed Damak – Managing Director, Global Head of Islamic Finance and Sector Lead, Middle East and Africa, Financial Institutions Ratings
- Ricardo Grisi – Director and Lead Analyst, Latin America, Financial Institutions Ratings
- Gavin Gunning – Managing Director, Sector Lead, Asia-Pacific, Financial Institutions Ratings
- Elena Iparraguirre – Director and Lead Analyst, Europe, Financial Institutions Ratings
- Ryan Tsang – Managing Director, Sector Lead, Greater China Region, Financial Institutions Ratings
- Emmanuel Volland – Managing Director, Global Sector Lead, Financial Institutions Ratings
Moderator:
- Osman Sattar – Director and Accounting Specialist, EMEA Financial Institutions Ratings
This webinar replay is free of charge.