S&P Global Ratings’ outlook for the global banking sector in 2025 points to relative ratings stability. However, we have identified four key downside risks that could alter this perspective: a global economic slowdown beyond current forecasts, greater-than-anticipated property sector challenges, persistently high interest rates amid elevated government and corporate leverage, and emerging risks from new technologies such as AI, as well as climate change and cyber threats. These evolving factors may increase credit differentiation, as banks' ability to adapt could lead to positive or negative outcomes. We estimate global banks' credit losses to rise by approximately 7% to US$850 billion in 2025, but that higher credit losses are within our base case at current rating levels for most banks.
On Wednesday, November 20, 2024, S&P Global Ratings' Global Financial Institutions analysts hosted a live, interactive webinar to discuss key themes and trends for global banks in 2025. The session featured audience Q&A and live polls to gather participants' insights.
Speakers:
Emmanuel Volland, Managing Director, Global Sector Lead
Elena Iparraguirre, Director, Lead Analyst, EMEA
Kensuke Sugihara, Managing Director, Sector Lead, Japan
Ryan Tsang, Managing Director, Sector Lead, Greater China Region
Mohamed Damak, Managing Director, Sector Lead, Gulf Region
Ivan Tan, Director, Lead Analyst, South and Southeast Asia
Nico de Lange, Director, Pacific
Shinoy Varghese, Associate Director, Hong Kong & South and Southeast Asia
Moderator:
Gavin Gunning, Managing Director, Sector Lead, Global and Asia-Pacific
Register to receive the replay at your convenience if you can't participate in the live webinar. This webinar is free of charge.
We look forward to you joining us.
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