October 15, 2025

 

Key properties

Population growth has increased pressure on the world’s stock of arable land, fuelling research into synthetic fertilizers. These enable farmers to enhance yields and produce more grain from a given area of land. Improvements in crop yields have accelerated since 1913 thanks to the Haber-Bosch process, which synthetically converts atmospheric nitrogen into ammonia.

Three primary nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium – can accelerate plant growth.

Nitrogen, often supplied through urea, promotes plant growth and enhances photosynthesis; phosphates are key for root development and energy transfer; and potassium contributes to overall plant health, drought resistance, and disease tolerance.

The effective use of fertilizers not only increases crop yields but also supports food security for a growing global population.

Nutrient application has long been appreciated by farmers: manure application, for example, has featured in agrarian societies, providing a natural source of primary nutrients. However, it wasn’t until the early 20th century that more concentrated chemical products started to be manufactured and traded globally, eventually leading to the “green revolution” of the 1970s.

One key component, nitrogen, is often extracted from nitrogen via the Haber-Bosch process, which transformed fertilizer production into a true industry. This process involves the reaction of nitrogen gas from the atmosphere with hydrogen, typically derived from natural gas, under high temperatures and pressures to produce ammonia, which is used in the production of urea, nitrates, and most complex fertilizers such as ammoniated phosphates, NPKs, ammonium sulfate, or potassium nitrate.

Phosphates are produced through the mining and processing of phosphate rock, often through reacting it with a strong industrial acid (typically sulfuric acid) to obtain phosphoric acid, which is then further processed into various downstream products such as diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), or triple superphosphate (TSP).

Potash, primarily consisting of potassium, is obtained from ancient sea and lake beds that formed millions of years ago. The extraction process involves mining and refining these deposits, mostly producing potassium chloride, from which a variety of further downstream products are made.

The absence of any of the essential nutrients — nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), or potassium (K) — can lead to deficiencies in plants, resulting in stunted growth, diminished crop quality, and reduced resilience against drought and diseases.

 

Trade flow

Seasonal factors play a crucial role in fertilizer trade, as demand typically peaks during planting seasons. The recurring north/south wave of seasonal spikes can lead to increased imports by countries preparing for their agricultural cycles, resulting in price volatility during these periods.

Urea is one of the most traded fertilizers globally. Major exporters of urea include countries in the Middle East, such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia, where abundant natural gas supplies facilitate low production costs. Other key exporters include Russia, China, and Egypt. On the import side, countries like Brazil, the US, and several Southeast Asian nations are significant consumers, driven by their large agricultural sectors.

Global trade in phosphates is marked by a high concentration of exports from a few key regions. Morocco is the top exporter of phosphate fertilizers, followed by China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia (2024 data). These countries produce various phosphate fertilizers, including monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP). Major importers include Brazil, India, Europe, and Southeast Asian countries, where agricultural demand is strong. Unlike nitrogen, excess phosphorus applied to soil can remain (to an extent) available for future crop seasons, although this largely depends on rainfall patterns and soil quality.

Potash trade flows are even more concentrated on the supply side, with Canada being the largest producer and exporter, followed by Russia and Belarus. These countries dominate the global market, supplying potash to various regions, including the US, Brazil, and India, which are among the largest importers.

 

Price drivers

Author: Jeffrey McDonald
Editor: Meghan Gordon
Design: Content Design

 

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Atlas of Food

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