India’s Venezuelan crude imports poised to stay strong despite earthquakes: sources

India's appetite for Venezuelan crude is set to remain robust in the coming months as refiners continue to import cargoes from the South American supplier, with loading operations unaffected by June earthquakes, industry sources and analysts said July 15.

A total of 10.1 million barrels of Venezuelan-origin crude was discharged at Indian ports in June, after 10.2 million barrels were discharged in May, highlighting a sharp near-term increase in flows, compared to the discharges of 8.3 million barrels in April and 0.9 million barrels in March, data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea showed. In July, 7.7 million barrels are scheduled for discharge.

"There is not much evidence to suggest that the recent earthquake has disrupted Venezuelan crude exports -- July month-to-date loading activity was 19.1 million barrels for all destinations, running broadly in line with June on a barrels per day basis," said Benjamin Tang, head of liquid bulk at CAS.

No significant damage has been reported to Venezuela's oil production and refining facilities so far following two earthquakes on June 24, according to sources at state oil company PDVSA. A 7.2 magnitude earthquake was reported as centered about 160 km west of Caracas, followed by a 7.5 magnitude earthquake centered near Moron on the north-central coast.

"Inflows could go higher in the coming months, with a new Indian refinery, which can process Venezuelan crude, coming online this month," said a former senior crude procurement official at a leading state-run oil company.

Diplomatic efforts

Venezuela's oil industry produced 3 million b/d in 2008, but output dropped to about 963,000 b/d by December 2025, just before Maduro was removed from power. PDVSA has said it aims to reach 1.37 million b/d by the end of 2026.

"India is also stepping up diplomatic efforts to boost energy ties with Venezuela. That will get reflected in the future," Tang said.

Indian government officials said June 4 that New Delhi will explore the possibility of term oil contracts with Venezuela and upstream investment opportunities in the South American country, where production has been rising gradually, opening avenues to expand future energy ties.

The diplomatic push comes at a time when India is looking for alternatives to fill the gap left by disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The South American producer benefits from a supply agreement with Washington amid eased sanctions, which have broadened access to its crude oil for a wider range of customers.

"Freight will be a key area of focus while trying to boost purchases from Venezuela as it will have implications for refinery economics," Tang said.

India imported about 300,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude in 2019, but flows had since declined, totaling about 25 million barrels in 2024. In 2025, five VLCCs -- one per month -- discharged Venezuelan crude at the Port of Sikka, CAS data showed.

Processing hurdles

Venezuelan grades like Merey-16 will face direct competition from alternatives such as Iraqi Basrah Heavy and Canadian Cold Lake, Tang said.

"While flows from Venezuela have surged, further upside could be potentially constrained by limited heavy-crude processing capacity, with only a handful of refineries able to run grades like Merey-16," Tang said.

The former crude procurement official said that only refineries of Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy, along with Indian Oil's Paradip refinery and the new HPCL Rajasthan Refinery, were best suited to process Venezuelan crude. Some refiners will need to blend it with lighter crudes, he said.

"That will always be a limiting factor when it comes to purchases from Venezuela. Refineries will always look to balance Venezuelan purchases with other crudes. I will not be surprised if HRRL brings in some Venezuelan crude," the former official said.

HRRL, India's first greenfield integrated refinery complex in a decade, began operations July 4, a development that will advance the country's energy security and support its emergence as a key refining hub, government officials said.

"HRRL can take and process Venezuelan crude since its complexity is very high. But they have to work out the logistics," said DLN Sastri, former director of refining at the Federation of Indian Petroleum Industry.