US steel leader sees USMCA review dragging into 2027

The US, Canada and Mexico are unlikely to reach an agreement by a July 1 deadline for a high-stakes review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, American Iron and Steel Institute President Kevin Dempsey told Platts during the Global Steel Dynamics Forum June 17.

Still, the steel industry leader said he is optimistic the countries will conclude an agreement between the end of the year and mid-2027.

"It's a delicate balance, you know, getting the governments to agree on all this stuff," Dempsey told Platts, adding, "They're still early in the negotiation process."

Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.

If the three countries reach an agreement, then the USMCA would extend until 2042. If they do not, the trade pact would face yearly reviews until 2036 -- or a deal is reached -- potentially leading to an ongoing roller coaster of negotiations over the fate of the agreement. The USMCA covers deeply integrated supply chains in North America.

Trump has repeatedly criticized the trade pact and said the US does not need anything from Canada and Mexico.

"To me, I think it's better without it," Trump told reporters on June 17 when asked how long USMCA negotiations would go on. "To be honest with you, I'm not a big fan of it".

"I would rather not have the agreement, but I may sign it," he added. "We do better as a country if we don't have an agreement."

US steel industry

Amid the USMCA negotiations, the US steel industry wants to see stronger rules that more strictly define North American-made steel as part of the current review of the USMCA, said Dempsey.

Under the current agreement, slab that was imported and re-rolled in the continent is considered North American, according to Dempsey.

The domestic steel sector is also pushing for increased North American and US content requirements for the automotive and other manufactured goods industries. The US wants an overall North American content requirement of about 75%-80%, with at least 50% sourced from the US, Dempsey said.

The US steel industry has previously voiced its desire for Canada and Mexico to adopt similar trade policies as the US, including US President Donald Trump's 50% tariff on steel imports.

Trump imposed a global 50% steel tariff as part of his economic agenda to boost domestic manufacturing amid what the US and some in the steel industry see as an oversupply of cheap imports in the global market. The move has successfully dissuaded some US-based buyers from importing steel.

Platts assessed the TSI US HRC EXW Indiana at $1,140/short ton on June 18, up 31.8% from $865/st a year ago.