PJM extends weather notices, ERCOT issues weather watch with another arctic air forecast

The PJM Interconnection extended its cold weather alert and conservative operations declaration, while the Electric Reliability Council of Texas issued Jan. 30 a watch for an extreme cold weather system as wholesale power prices remain elevated with another arctic air mass forecast to engulf the eastern two-thirds of the US.

In addition, the US Department of Energy announced extensions of four emergency orders Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress, and PJM Interconnection.

"The core of the arctic air is forecast to dive unusually far south into the southeastern U.S. this weekend before exiting the coast," the US National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center said Jan. 30. "As the core of the extremely cold air moves over the still very warm Gulf Stream, the potential energy unleashed will result in the formation of a coastal cyclone that could intensify explosively just off the southeastern US later this weekend."

PJM outlook

PJM forecast peakload to reach 138.95 gigawatts (GW) on Jan. 30, up more than 4.4 GW day over day. The all-time winter peakload record is 143.336 GW reached Jan. 22, 2025.

Pittsburgh high temperatures are forecast at 11 degrees Fahrenheit on Jan. 30, 27 degrees below seasonal norms, with the low forecast at minus 5 F, 26 degrees below seasonal norms, according to CustomWeather data.

PJM West Hub on-peak day-ahead for Feb. 2 delivery traded at $209.62/mega-watt hour (MWh) on the Intercontinental Exchange, while on-peak weekend traded at $307.65/MWh and off-peak traded at $316/MWh.

The PJM West Hub on-peak day-ahead locational marginal price has averaged $154.20/MWh so far in January, 125% higher year over year, according to PJM data. The LMP reached a record high price of $890.01/MWh for Jan. 27.

A cold weather alert is a routine procedure PJM issues in advance of significantly cold weather conditions expected for all or parts of the region PJM serves.

"When issued, PJM communicates with generation owners to tell them to be prepared to call in additional staff to get all units running for when electricity use begins to increase," PJM said in a statement. "Generation owners must take extra care to maintain equipment so that it does not freeze in the cold and are reminded to provide updated information to PJM on limitations to their units, including time required to start and the max and min times that their units can run once started."

A cold weather alert can also be used to defer or reschedule planned generation maintenance outages and/or transmission outages and/or recall transmission/generator outages, if necessary, according to PJM.

There are any number of events that may require PJM to operate more conservatively, according to PJM.

"When PJM declares conservative operations, system operators have more flexibility to make decisions to maintain reliability," PJM said. "The declaration of conservative operations may include additional actions, including recalling/cancelling non-critical maintenance outages, reductions in transfers into, across or through the PJM RTO, increased reserves, and/or additional requests placed upon PJM member transmission owners and generation owners."

ERCOT outlook

ERCOT forecast peakload to reach 70.7 GW on Jan. 31, up more than 5.8 GW day over day. The all-time winter peakload record is 80.56 GW reached Jan. 20, 2025.

Dallas high temperatures are forecast at 34 F on Jan. 30, 26 degrees below seasonal norms, with low forecast at 17 F, 21 degrees below seasonal norms, according to CustomWeather data.

Prices appeared to calm heading into next week. ERCOT North Hub on-peak weekend traded at $60/MWh on ICE as off-peak weekend traded at $85/MWh, while on-peak day-ahead traded was bid at $24.95/MWh and offered at $28.25/MWh.

The ERCOT Hub on-peak day-ahead LMP has averaged $72.70/MWh so far in January, 122% higher year over year, according to PJM data. The LMP reached a record high price of $8,800/MWh on Feb. 17, 2021, during a winter storm that led to rotating outages.

ERCOT previously issued advisory for an extreme cold weather system approaching the ERCOT region with temperatures and wind chills anticipated to remain below freezing Jan. 31-Feb. 1. In addition, ERCOT issued Jan. 27 an operating condition notice for the extreme cold weather system approaching its region.

DOE extended emergency orders

The US Department of Energy announced extensions of four emergency orders "to mitigate the risk of blackouts in the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic ahead of extended winter weather, with below freezing temperatures projected over the weekend and into early next week," the DOE said in a Jan. 30 statement.

Two orders were issued to Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress, valid through Feb. 3, and two were issued to PJM Interconnection, valid through Feb. 2.

"Duke Energy and PJM requested these extensions because the emergency conditions will persist beyond the term of the original orders," the DOE said in the statement.

The PJM orders were originally issued Jan. 24, while the Duke orders were originally issued Jan. 26, according to the DOE.

Weather-related alerts

Other grid operators still have weather-related alerts active.

MISO has a cold weather alert and a conservative operations declaration still active through Feb. 1. Indiana Hub on-peak day-ahead traded at $125/MWh on ICE, while the on-peak weekend package was

As a precaution, the ISO-NE issued Jan. 25 as a precaution its master local control center procedure No. 2, or abnormal conditions alert, due to severe weather. The alert remains active as of Jan. 30.

Mass Hub on-peak day-ahead traded at $240/MWh on ICE, while on-peak weekend traded at $258.75/MWh and off-peak weekend traded at $220/MWh.

The Internal Hub on-peak day-ahead LMP has averaged $182.32/MWh so far in January, 30% above the January 2025 average, according to ISO data. The LMP set a record high of $660.37/MWh on Jan. 27, 2026.