FEATURE: China beef import quota prompts Brazil, Australia to seek new markets

China's tightening of beef safeguard measures is expected to shift global trade flows, impacting top suppliers Brazil and Australia, according to exporters and traders in both countries.

China, the largest beef importer, decided to impose an additional tariff of 55% on beef imports from different countries, including Brazil, Australia and the US, when shipments exceed the annual quotas from 2026 through 2028, the country's commerce ministry said Dec. 31, 2025. For 2026, China set the quota for Brazil at 1.1 million metric tons, Australia at 205,000 mt and the US at 164,000 mt, it said.

According to data from China's General Administration of Customs (GACC) released on May 20, Brazil had used 55.4% of its safeguard quotas as of April 30, while China's commerce ministry announced on May 16 that Australia had reached 80% of its quota.

Beef traders in Brazil said the supplier is likely to reach its quota by August-September. Australian exports are expected to exhaust the quota even before, market participants based in Australia said.

"If [beef] shipments from these origins continue at the current pace, Australia is projected to exhaust its 2026 quota in Q2, while Brazil is likely to reach its quota limit by July," S&P Global Energy CERA said in a report on May 22.

For marketing year 2026 (January-December), China's beef purchases are likely to fall 9.2% year over year to 3.4 million mt beef, CERA data showed.

Brazil, Australia look for new destinations

With the quota nearing exhaustion, Brazilian beef exporters are looking to diversify to new markets in the coming months, Brazilian-based beef exporters said.

China is the largest buyer of Brazilian beef. During January-April, Brazil sold 460,888 mt of beef to China, accounting for nearly half of its shipments, according to data from Brazil's Secretariat of Foreign Trade.

Brazil's exporters are looking to increase sales to other markets, such as the US and Chile, Brazilian traders said.

"Exports have been increasing sales to the US, Chile and Southeast Asian nations to compensate for the likely fall in China's imports," a trader based in São Paulo said.

In MY 2026, Brazil is expected to ship out 3.9 million mt of beef, down 10.2% year over year, according to CERA.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Brazil beef marker at $6,511/mt on May 27, up 11.9% from a year ago.

For Australia, beef exporters are looking to increase their shipments to the US, Japan and South Korea, beef traders in Australia said.

"The US is expected to become an even more central driver of Australian export demand after China imposed a quota on Australian beef," CERA said in a report. "China's quota is also forecast to redirect large volumes of Australian and Brazilian beef to the US market."

During January-March, Australia sold 86,302 mt of beef to China, accounting for over 22% of its shipments, according to data from Australia's Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry.

In MY 2026, Australia is expected to export 2.48 million mt of beef, down 4.6% year over year, according to CERA.

"Traditionally, China has been a very strong market. The quota situation risks nearly $750 million of trade, particularly for chilled beef, which has a shorter shelf life," said Andrew Cox, general manager of international markets at Meat & Livestock Australia.

Platts assessed 90CL beef FCA Australia at $7,657/mt on May 26, up 24.3% from a year ago.

US beef exporters look for gains

US beef exporters are looking to increase sales to China in the coming months, in the event that Australia and Brazil exhaust their quotas, US market participants said.

China recently renewed licenses of over 400 US beef facilities after the two-day bilateral summit between US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping on May 14-15, according to a White House factsheet.

China had effectively suspended beef imports from the US since March 2025, amid the US-China tariff conflict, when it stopped renewing export licenses for US beef exporters.

For 2026, China has allowed a TRQ of 164,000 mt of beef imports from the US, according to China's commerce ministry. However, the US has only been able to utilize 0.42% of its quota, according to data from GACC.

So far in MY 2026, China has committed to purchase 200 mt beef from the US, compared with 37,100 mt in the corresponding period in MY 2025, data from the US Department of Agriculture showed.

Some US beef exporters believe they can increase shipments to China in the near term if Brazil and Australia exhaust their quotas, a trader based in Iowa said.

"If the licenses remain in place, we will be able to utilize some of the quota allotted to us by 2026-end," a Indiana-based beef exporter said.

In MY 2026, the US is expected to ship out 1.07 million mt of beef, down 8.2% year over year, according to the USDA.

However, US beef cut products are not competitive enough to sell to China in the near term, CERA said in a report. "Despite a quota allocation well above recent shipment levels, export capacity has been severely constrained. [US beef] shipments are still unlikely to fully utilize the allocated quota," another CERA report said.

Platts assessed 90CL beef CIF EC US at $8,003/mt on May 27, up 23.9% year over year and 95CL beef CIF EC US was assessed at $8,598/mt on May 27, up 24.6% from a year ago.