Black Sea wheat prices hold steady amid tight margins, shifting demand

Platts wheat benchmark, the Milling Wheat Marker, has stayed in the high $230s to low $240s per metric ton since early March amid steady demand and tight exporter margins.

On May 14, the MWM tracked Russian 12.5% protein wheat at $241/mt, while April's monthly average was $238.61/mt, virtually unchanged from March's $238.77/mt.

Market participants said they were focused on the upcoming Black Sea new crop, expected to start in July. The price spread between old and new crop wheat is at near parity, a shift from the previous year's $10-$15/mt backwardation, largely due to a record 2025 harvest.

"I see several buyers at $240/mt," a Russian wheat seller said, adding that the bids for June and the new crop in the second half of July were at similar levels of $240-$240.50/mt, compared with offers at $241.50/mt May 14.

Exporter margins were also squeezed by the ruble's decline to Rb73/$1, its lowest level since 2023, with traders anticipating limited significant price drops.

"I expect the price to reach no lower than $235/mt," a buyer of Russian wheat said of near-term prices.

S&P Global Energy CERA forecasts 2026 Russian wheat production at 87.2 million mt, down 3 million mt year over year, due to slower spring planting but improved winter wheat yields. Ukrainian sellers said they remained cautious due to high production costs and crop expectations at 23.2 million mt, largely unchanged from 2025. The country is expected to have large carryover stocks at 4.7 million mt, driven by low exports amid logistical constraints and strong competitive demand. On May 14, Ukrainian 11.5% wheat was assessed at just $1/mt below the MWM.

Black Sea wheat demand

Demand has been primarily driven by FOB buyers short on physical wheat and actively bidding to secure cargoes for forward sales, one seller in Ukraine said. In contrast, CIF demand was muted as anticipated record harvests begin in several Middle East and North Africa countries, causing freight rates to return to pre-Middle East war levels.

Egypt, which began its harvest in mid-April, has seen buyers remain quiet, cautiously bidding in the low $250s/mt for CIF June shipments, with most purchases on hold due to comfortable stock levels and rising energy costs.

"There are no bids," one buyer in Egypt said, adding that local wheat prices were at cheaper rates than imported levels.

Turkey and Morocco are expected to see the largest production increases, with wheat production rising by 4 million mt in each country, according to market participants. Turkey may reintroduce import bans or quotas, as it did in 2024, buyers in the local market said. Previously, Platts CIF Marmara prices dropped to a record low of $208/mt at the time of the ban, a stark contrast to $254/mt May 14.

State boards in Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan have been stockpiling new crop wheat, purchasing in the low to mid $270s/mt range, according to market participants in the Black Sea. The CVB market, which supplies these destinations, was assessed at a $4.50/mt premium to the MWM for 12.5% protein wheat and a $2.50/mt premium for 11.5% protein wheat May 14.

Interest in containerized old-crop Australian wheat has been subdued, as Black Sea offers remain more competitive. Australian Standard White wheat is priced at least $20/mt above 11.5% Black Sea wheat, with buyers only willing to pay a premium of up to $10/mt, rendering current Australian offers unattractive.

The spread between the MWM and Australian Premium White and Canadian Western Red Spring wheat peaked to June-July 2025 at $42/mt and $51/mt, respectively, driven by futures rallies, crop concerns and currency volatility.