Platts MWM-APW spread widens to record high on currency, crop fears

The Milling Wheat Marker spread over the Australian Premium White wheat price assessment hit a record high May 13 driven by currency strength and production concerns, though ample old-crop stocks in Australia could temper tightness in the upcoming season.

The spread reached $42/mt on May 13, the widest since Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, launched the MWM in June 2025.

The gap has steadily widened since March 19, with APW prices rising despite a strong production in the 2025-26 marketing year (October to September).

Multiple trade sources attributed the rise to a strengthening Australian dollar, anticipated production declines from an approaching El Niño weather event, and wheat acreage losses to more profitable winter crops, including barley and canola. Higher input costs stemming from the Middle East conflict have also supported prices.

The upward momentum in prices saw Australian wheat hitting a near two-year high May 8, Platts reported previously.

Since then, prices have continued to strengthen, with the Australian Premium White assessed at $282/metric ton FOB Kwinana May 13, up $33/mt year-to-date.

The Milling Wheat Marker was assessed at $240.5/mt May 13, up 50 cents week over week, amid record wheat harvest campaigns across the Middle East and North Africa.

Nonetheless, several Australian sources said that a lot of old-crop tonnage remained unsold and in growers' hands, which could help to relieve tightness from a lower new crop production.

Australia's 2025-26 marketing year carryout is projected at 6.1 million metric tons, 52% higher than the prior marketing year, according to S&P Global CERA's latest forecast May 8.

"We don't expect to see a massive decline in exports in the next season as there'll be a strong carryout from this season, but prices may remain high, especially in the near term, as grower selling on both old and new-crop wheat remains thin," said a Perth-based trade source.