COMMODITY TRACKER: 5 charts to watch this week

The Asian oil industry is facing high prices and supply disruptions, while Indonesia is aiming at ethanol 20% gasoline plan. European carbon prices and Brazilian power prices are in focus this week.

1. High crude prices tighten Asian supply, demand

What's happening? Crude oil prices above $100/b are creating a dual challenge for Asia as supply constraints and elevated prices threaten both energy security and demand growth, industry sources and analysts said Sept. 14. The impact of high crude oil prices has extended far beyond direct fuel consumption and is impacting freight, manufacturing and household expenses, according to analysts, economists and industry sources. About 75% of Asia's crude imports from the Middle East transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, but by Q3 2026, that share had fallen to between 10% and 20%, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea.

What's next? Analysts said early signs of demand curtailment were already visible and could intensify unless conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine subside and prices decrease. This could hinder Asian countries' efforts to secure additional cargoes and build energy-security buffers. Global oil demand is expected to decline by about 2.4 million barrels/day in 2026 from 2025 levels, with Asia accounting for about 1.5 million b/d of the contraction, according to S&P Global Energy CERA.

2. Indonesia targets sugarcane for E20 ethanol blend

What's happening? Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has ordered ministries to deliver a 20% ethanol gasoline blend within two years, sharply accelerating an April decree, which required only 5% blending through 2027 and 10% between 2028 and 2030. The supply gap is the binding constraint. Indonesian ethanol output was 160,946 kiloliters in 2024, according to industry body Apsendo, while E10 alone would require 1.4 million kl/year, nearly nine times current production, with E20 demanding substantially more. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the Asian fuel ethanol marker at $675/cubic meter CIF Philippines on Sept. 18, up $28.33/cubic meter month over month.

What's next? The country has identified sugarcane as the primary feedstock for its E20 ethanol fuel blend program. The E20 volumes would be sourced entirely from domestic production, Coordinating Minister for Food Affairs Zulkifli Hasan said after a Sept. 17 cabinet meeting at Merdeka Palace. "We will gradually move toward E50, as we did toward B50 (blending mandate of 50%)," Hasan said. Jakarta has signaled the ambition runs further still.

3. LME copper tops $14,400/mt as inventories rise

What's happening? London Metal Exchange copper cash settled at $14,400.50/mt Sept. 17, up $10.50 week over week. Inventories climbed 21,150 mt week over week. The three-month contract was at an $8.50/mt premium to cash, indicating contango. Platts assessed clean copper concentrate CIF China at $4,124/mt Sept. 21, up $22/mt day over day, but below the all-time high price of $4,133/mt reached on Sept. 10. Platts assessed Chinese import premiums at $105/mt Sept. 21, down $5/mt day over day. US tariff uncertainty, regional inventory dislocation and persistent concentrate constraints have supported copper prices, even as metal flows into the US tighten availability elsewhere, CERA analysts said.

What's next? CERA analysts expect prices to remain elevated near term as rising liquidity softens the US dollar. Falling inventories could ease tightness, though continued copper flows into the US could trigger another squeeze. CERA analysts forecast a global refined copper surplus at 288,000 mt, while the midterm outlook forecasts a copper concentrate deficit of about 530,000 mt in 2026.

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4. European carbon prices rise on strong gas prices

What's happening? EU carbon prices rose over the week of Sept. 18 amid bullish gas support. The market remains apprehensive amid ongoing debate among lawmakers and member states over the future shape of the EU Emissions Trading System. Prices hit a more than seven-month high earlier in the week before participants took profit. Platts last assessed EU Allowances at €85.87/metric tons of CO2 equivalent Sept. 17, while the benchmark natural gas front-month Dutch TTF was assessed at €76.795/MWh, down from a more than three-year high of €83.525/MWh on Sept. 14.

What's next? Analysts at CERA expect prices to average around €86/mtCO2e in the fourth quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, market participants have expressed concern about potential policy interventions that could depress the price of EUA and further deter financial players from taking positions. A Europe-based carbon trader expects limited upside after the Sept. 30 compliance deadline, noting no major fundamental catalyst beyond potential headlines this winter.

5. Brazilian power prices fall on unexpected rainfall

What's happening? Brazil's power prices have fallen following unexpected rainfall, which has affected the outlook for hydroelectric availability in the country. Annually, over half of Brazil's electricity generation comes from hydropower plants, according to the Ministry of Mines and Energy. The change in weather, combined with new rain forecasts, has caused a sharp decline in forward power prices. Platts assessment of conventional power in Brazil's southeast-central region for the October forward price was at 143 reais/MWh ($28/MWh) on Sept. 18. The assessment for March 2027 dropped to 280 reais/MWh ($54/MWh), down from 319 reais/MWh on Sept. 1.

What's next? "In the next six to eight weeks, our models are signaling that intense rain will continue," said Alexandre Nascimento, meteorologist and partner of the São Paulo-based Nottus consultancy firm. "Cold fronts are coming with strength and not remaining restricted to the south but reaching southeastern and central states as well", he said.

Reporting and analysis by Sambit Mohanty, Samyak Pandey, Shivam Prakash, Irina Breilean and Felipe Peroni.