Daily Update — July 09, 2025
Energy and Climate Financing; AI-driven Margin Boost; and Private Equity Dry Powder Decline
Today is Wednesday, July 9, 2025, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Energy Transition & Sustainability
Listen: Change Makers: Katherine Cooke and Apar Paudyal, OPM
Oxford Policy Management’s Katherine Cooke, principal consultant and hub lead for climate finance, and Apar Paudyal, senior consultant for climate resilience and sustainability, joined hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys on the “EnergyCents” podcast to discuss energy and climate financing and the challenges around raising funds related to adaptation in the ever-changing environmental landscape.
Oxford Policy Management (OPM) is a global consultancy that works across climate policy, finance, disaster risk, energy and urban planning to help governments and communities build resilience and reduce emissions.
Artificial Intelligence
AI savings could lead to upward earnings surprises in tech
Cost savings from AI-driven efficiencies are rarely reflected in software companies' profitability forecasts, but they could soon become a significant catalyst as firms push for the adoption of generative AI tools.
Since most analysts have yet to incorporate potential savings from GenAI technologies into their models, there could be upside surprises to earnings in the current and coming years, provided estimates remain accurate and no economic shocks occur. Mizuho analysts forecast that efficiencies from AI could improve margins by up to 7.5% by 2027. This would raise Visible Alpha’s current median margin estimate for 2027 to 33%. The Visible Alpha list includes 72 companies in the application software category with a market capitalization higher than $2 billion. Visible Alpha is a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Private Markets
Global private equity dry powder continues fall from 2023 peak
Global private equity dry powder continues to decline from its recent all-time high, even as private equity fund managers remain under pressure to put investors' capital commitments to work.
Global private equity funds collectively held about $2.516 trillion in dry powder as of June 30, down 7.7% from a record $2.726 trillion in 2023, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Dry powder is capital pledged by investors to private equity funds but not yet deployed into leveraged buyouts or other deals. For the general partners managing private equity funds, the issue is not the amount of dry powder — with the global total still higher than any point prior to 2022, there is ample capital for deals — but how old the dry powder is getting.
In case you missed it
- Private equity fundraising in the UK grew 2.6% to $35.24 billion in the first half compared to $34.35 billion in the same period in 2024, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
- Most major banks in Asia-Pacific increased their market capitalization in the second quarter as falling interest rates attracted investors to bank stocks in anticipation of increased economic activity.
- India's crude oil inflows from the US surged more than 50% in the first half of 2025 compared with the first half of 2024, while flows from Brazil rose 80% over the same period.
Upcoming events
- Look Forward: The Future of Capital Markets | July 10 (Webinar)
- Navigating Change: The Critical Role of Sustainability in the Financial Function | July 15 (New York)
- Climate Stress Testing: Adapting to Evolving UK & EU Regulations | July 16 (Webinar)