Product

European Long-Term Power Forecast

The role of wind, solar and other low-carbon technologies within the power supply mix is accelerating, and the impact that these technologies have on price formation is increasing alongside them. In addition, the electrification of other energy sectors tied to the growing role of electric vehicles, heat pumps, and electrolyzers will have major implications for electricity demand growth as well as its hourly and seasonal shape.

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All these rapidly developing market dynamics are adding significant complexity and uncertainty to forward planning at a time when investment decisions need to be made urgently to mitigate imminent large-scale plant closures across Europe, and to meet the region's ambitions on both decarbonization and security of supply. Nor it is enough to 'just' understand power market dynamics – fuel and carbon pricing will play a major role in power price setting for many years to come, and a holistic outlook across the global energy landscape is crucial to understand the local price risks for European power investments.

S&P Global Commodity Insight's (SPGCI) European Long-Term Power Forecast service enables customers to better understand the changes taking place in the market over the long-term and more aptly assess potential revenue opportunities. With a growing proportion of renewable generators exposed to merchant price risk, SPGCI's robust, market-leading forecasts—which now extend through 2050—provide a comprehensive and transparent view of evolving power prices and help you to stay ahead of the competition.

Features

The European Long-Term Power Forecast service delivers fundamental power supply, demand and pricing forecasts through to 2050 across key European markets, including monthly and yearly baseload prices and capture prices for wind/solar plants. The service provides detailed assumptions behind the price forecasts, including:

– Power demand growth by major categories: EVs, Heating, Electrolyzers, Data centers

– Demand flexibility assumptions

– Nuclear, fossil fuel retirements forecasts

– Additions of new capacity by fuel/technology

– Generation mix by source through the forecasting horizon

Benefits

– Understand the drivers of long-term wind/solar capture prices across Europe, from commodity price inputs to expected build out of renewable assets, as well as sources of flexibility, from battery storage to hydrogen electrolysis

– Accurately assess the risks associated with wind/ solar capture prices versus baseload power prices

– Maximize revenue from electricity produced by renewable assets

– Ensure commercial viability of potential projects to mitigate investment risk

– Access a detailed overview of market conditions and identify new profitable project opportunities

– Understand the value of an asset over its life cycle

– Leverage SPGCI's integrated outlook across European and global markets, from granular details to high-level expertise

Delivery methods

- Platts Dimensions Pro

- PDF

- Excel

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