Saudi Arabia raises Q4 GDP estimate; oil sector's growth firm

Saudi Arabia raised its estimate of Q4 GDP growth to 4.5% year over year, due to an upward revision in the tourism sector, while oil activities remained strong, according to the final 2024 GDP estimates issued March 9.

The Q4 GDP was raised from the flash estimate of 4.4% on Jan. 30, as the estimate of non-oil activities growth such as tourism was revised up to 4.7% from 4.6%, according to the country's General Authority for Statistics. Oil, natural gas and refining activities growth remained at 3.4%, the first expansion since the first quarter of 2023.

For the full year 2024, real GDP expanded by 1.3%, with oil contracting 4.5%, unchanged from January.

Oil prices climbed in the fourth quarter, with Platts-assessed Dated Brent rising above $80/b in October. Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Saudi Arabia's crude exports were also on the rise, with shipments climbing to 5.4 million b/d in December from 5.2 million b/d in November and the highest in nine months, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea.

Saudi Arabia is leading a group of eight OPEC+ voluntary cutters currently holding 2.2 million b/d of crude off the market. The group announced recently that they would proceed with plans to gradually introduce those barrels in April, despite repeatedly delaying the move, citing market conditions.

Saudi Arabia's production quota is set to rise to 9.034 million b/d in April, from 8.98 million b/d, according to the OPEC plans. The country has carried the bulk of OPEC+ production cuts and is the world's largest crude exporter.