19 Dec 2024 | 04:05 UTC — Insight Blog
2025 Energy Outlook: Surging primary demand to outpace clean energy growth
Energy transition highlights: Our editors and analysts bring together the biggest stories in the industry this week, from renewables to storage to carbon prices.
Global primary energy demand is set to rise by over 8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025, outstripping clean energy growth and increasing greenhouse gas emissions, S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts in a 2025 Energy Outlook published Dec. 11..
The outlook identifies 10 key themes to track, leading with the re-election of Donald Trump as US President and ranging from the impact of data centers on power demand to the possible peaking of global gasoline demand.
“There are emerging technological and fundamental trends that will clearly have an impact on markets over the coming year, although how significant their impact will be is uncertain,” said Dave Ernsberger, Co-President, Commodity Insights.
An anticipated surge in primary demand is not matched by clean energy supply, leading to an expected rise in fossil fuel consumption by over 3 million boe/d, the outlook says.
This imbalance will likely push CO2 emissions to new heights, albeit at the smallest increase rate since the pandemic, it says.
“While the supply of clean energy is growing faster than it ever has in history (over 5 million boe/d), it is not yet fast enough to curtail the growth in fossil fuel demand, let alone displace existing fossil fuel consumption,” it says.
Editor’s picks: Premium and free content
UK offers first green hydrogen production contracts to HAR1 projects
The UK government has offered the first contracts to green hydrogen project developers under its debut allocation round, an energy department spokesperson told S&P Global Commodity Insights. The contracts under Hydrogen Allocation Round 1 have been offered to projects via the Low Carbon Contracts Company, the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson said. DESNZ is still evaluating applications under HAR2 and "will update on the second funding round in due course."
COMMODITIES 2025: Asia Pacific's low-carbon hydrogen tenders to test readiness for clean fuel trades
Low-carbon hydrogen/ammonia tenders in the Asia-Pacific are expected to provide crucial insights into the readiness for clean fuel trades in 2025, as well as the pace of the energy transition toward an anticipated commercial stage around 2030. As such, the industry will eye Japan’s Contracts for Difference scheme, expected to pick out winners early next year; and South Korea's Clean Hydrogen Production Standard plan, under which, an undersubscribed 6.5 TWh hydrogen power generation tender in 2024, is expected to be retendered next year for the unbid capacity.
Solving hydrogen ‘math problem’ means de-risking tech, cheaper power: Mitsubishi Power
Success in the US hydrogen industry means "playing the long game," focusing on exports in the short term and developing multiple technologies to find which ones make the most economic sense, Mitsubishi Power Americas CEO Bill Newsom said in an interview with S&P Global Commodity Insights."
Regional trade barriers create hurdles for China’s power market reforms
China’s power market reforms have entered a new phase with the launch of spot markets and cross-provincial trading, but local trade barriers hinder the progress in the long-distance transmission of renewables from remote regions to urban demand centers, spelling out one of the key challenges to meet China’s goal of preliminary uniform power markets by 2030. Domestic trade barriers are the outcome of disparities in economic development between provinces and administrative regions, and local governments have significant control over their electricity markets and economic policy.
BP, Equinor and TotalEnergies take FID on UK Northern Endurance CO2 infrastructure
The Northern Endurance Partnership (BP, Equinor and TotalEnergies) have taken a positive final investment decision in the UK's first carbon capture and storage project, to store up to 4 million mt/year of CO2 and enable a host of regional industrial decarbonization projects to progress. The Dec. 10 announcement came as the UK's North Sea Transition Authority awarded the Endurance CO2 storage permit to NEP, with first injections coming as early as 2027. The project partners expect to start construction from mid-2025, with startup in 2028.
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