IEW 2025 takeaways: 5 key factors shaping India's energy landscape

India Energy Week 2025 kicked off in New Delhi with an energy as dynamic as the city itself. Thought leaders, industry pioneers and curious minds from around the globe gathered to discuss the future of energy in India and beyond.

The event, a lively mix of informative sessions and eye-catching exhibitions, highlighted India's growing significance in the global energy arena. Several key messages emerged, signaling the present and future state of India's and global energy.

1. The influence of Trump 2.0

US President Donald Trump featured as a protagonist in most of the energy conversations at the event -- almost like an unannounced special guest despite being 7,500 miles away. The so-called "Trump 2.0" phenomenon was a subject of curiosity, confusion, anxiety, upheaval and sometimes sheer amazement as participants contemplated its impact on global energy markets. Conversations that once seemed to revolve around distant geopolitical scenarios were now being framed as plausible realities. IEW was the first significant energy conference to take place since Jan. 20. Still, the new US administration undeniably shaped the agenda even without Trump being mentioned anywhere on the formal event brochure.

For the skeptics, it was certainly a stark reminder of the US's centrality and hegemony in the global energy markets, both as a voracious consumer and a gargantuan supplier of energy to the world.

2. India's oil demand story continues to shine

While onstage discussions were mostly about projecting the energy ambitions, there was a certain degree of ease and comfort with the who's who of the country's energy sector being unapologetic about India's surging oil demand growth.

The sheer scale of India's energy supply chains and infrastructure was often flaunted with pride, and the advice from India's energy suppliers on- and offstage was plain and simple -- the boycott of carbon-intensive forms of energy does not work, especially in India's case. India must continue using all available sources of energy with a gradual and smooth glide path toward transition.

All this holds significance as India takes over from China as the global oil demand growth driver, and the world is increasingly looking to decode the evolving Indian demand pattern to understand the global oil demand growth picture.

3. The hydrogen optimism continues -- almost unabated

Low-cost reliable solar power and the country's ambition to reduce energy import dependence means that policy support looks aggressive and lasting to make India one of the top players in the green hydrogen sector.

The "5 million tons green hydrogen by 2030" pledge was repeated with confidence within the first 30 minutes of the IEW opening ceremony. Closed-room conversations did acknowledge the real challenge -- the issue of economics and the cost of green hydrogen.

Hopes are pinned on mandates and subsidies to address the economics of production.

4. Promising horizon for gas and LNG

India continues to make strides in the gas and LNG markets. Thronged by a swarm of LNG sellers, the event saw multiple signings -- some fresh, some reheated ones.

The government is aiming for gas to account for 15% of the country's primary energy mix by 2030. It is currently at around 6%-7%.

Gas penetration in the country has faced challenges in the past few years, but the buildup of downstream infrastructure, mushrooming of city gas distribution, a commitment to advance gas reforms and positive economic prospects are among the primary drivers of India's LNG demand growth.

The price and affordability of LNG imports are, however, met with skepticism. India's buying pattern has anecdotally been characterized by a strong price elasticity of demand. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the LNG West India Marker for March at $14.775/MMBtu on Feb. 14, at a discount of 16.9 cents/MMBtu to the March JKM assessment. This price point is widely seen as a challenging level for a deeper gas penetration.

5. Biofuels as a means of self-reliance

India has made significant progress in its ethanol push, hitting a blending rate of 19%, according to Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a video message at IEW. The government is aiming for a 20% ethanol blending in gasoline by October.

An effective and strict mandate on biodiesel has the potential to achieve bigger oil displacement by virtue of higher consumption. However, biodiesel also faces challenges related to domestic feedstock availability. With ample domestic feedstock availability, India is looking to rely on the ethanol-to-jet route for sustainable aviation fuel. Thus, the common theme in India's biofuels story is the focus on import substitution.

Compressed biogas stands out as a likely biofuel of choice and has been long presented as a solution to many agrarian woes. The potential to benefit core domestic constituents while substituting hydrocarbon imports checks all the right boxes and there has been continuing traction for it. The CBG narrative has moved from being a concept to reality, with many capacity projects in the pipeline. CBG continues to be run small-scale with long-term commitment support from established players in Indian energy. It is being promised as a viable alternative for localized small-scale use cases at a price in the ballpark of being compared to market-based LNG.

The narrative around India's energy continues to evolve fast both from a headline demand and an energy mix standpoint. The sector has spearheaded one of the most notable redirection of energy flows from Russia, and has been successful in navigating the complex geopolitical, logistical, technical and commercial challenges to keep the energy costs in check for the country as it builds its war chest for the energy transition.

Related infographic: Oil key priority as India prepares energy demand roadmap