For the global oil market, one of the biggest wildcards of the US presidential election is Iran sanctions relief under a Biden administration. This would return more than 2 million b/d to an already very oversupplied oil market.
Today we have two predictions for how this would play out and how quickly.
Nareeka Ahir, geopolitical analyst for S&P Global Platts Analytics, argues that Biden will want to strike a quick interim deal with Tehran. She sees Iranian crude exports growing annually by 750,000 b/d starting in 2022.
She also briefly touches on what the election means for US-Middle East relations and Venezuela oil sanctions under a Biden White House, and gives an update on Libyan supply.
In the second interview, Henry Rome, senior Iran analyst at the Eurasia Group, predicts an interim agreement between the Biden administration and Iran could bring no more than 700,000 b/d next year, with a broader deal not coming until late 2021 or 2022.
He doesn't see an Iran deal being at the top of Biden's priorities, and he walks us through some of Tehran's limitations in quickly ramping up oil exports.
Stick around after both interviews for the Market Minute with Chris van Moessner, a look at near-term oil market drivers.