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Will the White House vote move the US oil production outlook?

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Listen: Will the White House vote move the US oil production outlook?

How much will November's presidential election actually influence the outlook for US oil and gas production?

Artem Abramov, head of shale research for Rystad Energy, makes the somewhat contrarian case that whoever is in the White House come next year will not greatly sway US production either way.

Rystad predicts a federal drilling ban, as proposed by Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, would have hardly any impact on oil and gas production in the medium term, given drillers' ability to shift to comparable private acreage.

Abramov sees US oil output starting 2021 at 11 million b/d, then declining to an average of 10.7 million-10.9 million b/d for the year. Longer-term light oil growth will be very gradual, although WTI prices above $55-$60/b could drive production back to record levels of 13 million b/d set before the coronavirus pandemic.

Crude analyst Parker Fawcett also shares S&P Global Platts Analytics' outlook for US production and the election stakes for drillers.