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Oil | Petrochemicals

What if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz?

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Listen: What if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz?

On today's Platts Capitol Crude, Fernando Ferreira, a senior analyst with Rapidan Energy Group, discusses a new report that forecasts the oil market impact of Iran successfully blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the world's busiest oil chokepoint.

Rapidan's report, "Battlespace & Barrel Flow: Oil Market Impacts of a US-Iran Conflict," forecasts that a weeklong shutdown would cause an immediate $15-$20/b spike in Brent oil prices, with prices exceeding $100/b likely if the disruption drags on.

Ferreira discusses crude quality differential issues, the loss of global spare capacity and the likely response from the world's top oil consumers in response to a blockade by Iran.