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EIA coal production forecast up 11.3% on year to 600 million st: STEO

Highlights

Coal generation projected at 23% in 2021

Export projection highest since January

The US Energy Information Administration forecast coal production of about 600 million st in 2021, up 11.3% from the estimated 2020 output of 539 million st, the agency's Short-Term Energy Outlook report said June 8.

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The monthly estimate jumped from an annual projection of 582 million st in May.

For 2022, the EIA projected output of about 605 million st, flat from the previous month's estimate.

Coal exports for 2021 were projected to total 80.6 million st, up 16.6% from the previous year's exports. Export expectations hit a three-month high.

Exports in 2022 were projected to be 92.2 million st, the highest estimate since January.

Power sector consumption was forecast to total 508 million st in 2021, up 16.4% from 2020 consumption. From May's estimate, it declined 2.1%. In 2022, consumption was forecast at 499 million st, down from 510 million st in the May report.

Total US consumption was forecast to be about 550 million st in 2021, up 15.2% from 2020. The EIA 2022 forecast was about 542 million st. Both projections declined about 10 million st from May's estimate.

Compared with the US coal-powered estimated generation share of 19.9% in 2020, the June EIA report projected the coal generation share at 23% in 2021 and 22% in 2022. The forecasts represented a decline of one percentage point from the previous report.

Natural gas generation share for 2021 was projected to be 36%, down from 39.2% in 2020. In 2022, gas generation was projected at 35%.

The EIA forecast gas production at 92.2 Bcf/d for 2021 in June, up from 2020 estimated production of about 91.4 Bcf/d. The 2022 projection was 98.4 Bcf/d. Power sector consumption for 2021 was forecast to be 29.4 Bcf/d, down 7.4% from 2020 consumption, and 29.3 Bcf/d in 2022.