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BRAZIL CORN WATCH: Weekly prices rise after 8 weeks on weak real, weather concerns

Weekly corn prices in some key spot markets of Brazil rose in the week to Nov. 26 after falling for eight consecutive weeks, supported by the appreciation of dollar against the local currency and weather concerns.

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"At the ports of Santos and Paranagua, prices [of corn] were influenced by the high level of the dollar -- especially at the beginning of last week -- and increase in the futures market," Brazil-based Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics said Nov. 29.

Sellers also have been attentive to the lower volume of rain seen in the southern parts of the country in November, which raises some concerns about the development of the first corn crop.

"Despite some recent rainfall, dryness remains across southern growing areas, particularly in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Soil moisture remains adequate in northern growing areas," M axar said in its daily weather report Nov. 29.

"In the southern states, where planting is already completed or nearing the end, producers remain concerned about low moisture. Although last week's rains brought some relief to crops, Rio Grande do Sul already faces yield loss," Brazil-based agricultural consultancy AgRural said in a report.

Below-normal rainfall is expected in southern Brazil over the next 10 days, increasing dryness and crop stress, Maxar added in the report.

The first corn crop in Brazil is planted during September-December and harvested in February-May, while the second crop is planted in February-March and harvested in June-July.

The first corn crop accounted for 25% of Brazil's total corn production in 2019-20.

The planting of first corn in the key states of Brazil, which accounts for 92% of the forecast area, had reached 75.3% of the estimated area for marketing year 2021-22 as of Nov. 27, compared with 70.7% a year ago, national agricultural agency Conab's crop progress report showed.

Brazil's 2021-22 corn crop will be marketed during February 2022-January 2023.

Corn price received by producers in Brazil in real/60 kg

Nov. 23-27, 2020

Nov. 22-26, 2021

Nov. 15-19, 2021

Year-on-year % change

Lucas do Rio Verde/Mato Grosso

66.75

64.66

67.96

-3.13

Londrina/Parana

69

77.40

76

12.17

Passo Fundo/Rio Grande do Sul

80

81

81

1.25

Uberlandia/Minas Gerais

75

85

87

13.33

Source: CONAB

CBOT corn $/mt

165.94

228.55

225.67

37.73

CEPEA corn indicator

80.43

83.40

82.62

3.7