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USDA lowers US corn year-end stock estimate for 2020-21, lifts export forecast

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USDA lowers US corn year-end stock estimate for 2020-21, lifts export forecast


Cuts US 2020-21 corn ending stocks to 1.702 bil bu from 2.167 bil bu

US corn export estimate for 2020-21 raised to 2.65 bil bu from 2.325 bil bu

Lifts 2020-21 average farm price for US corn to $4/bu from $3.60/bu

Lowers US corn production, yield estimates for 2020-21

New Delhi — The US Department of Agriculture lowered its year-end stock estimate for US corn to 1.702 billion bushels, down from 2.167 billion estimated in October for the 2020-21 marketing year (September-August), the agency's November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report showed Nov.10.

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The average trade estimate for 2020-21 US corn year-end stock was at 2.033 billion bushel, much higher than USDA's estimate.

The USDA raised the US corn exports estimate for 2020-21 to 2.65 billion bushels, from 2.325 billion bushels seen in October.

The corn import estimate from China was increased to 13 million mt, from 7 million mt seen earlier, the USDA report said. China has emerged as a major buyer of US corn this year.

The USDA's forecast for the season average farm price for US corn in 2020-21 was lifted to $4/bushel from $3.60/bushel earlier. S&P Global Platts Analytics forecast season average farm price for US corn to be lifted to $3.70/bushel.

The USDA lowered domestic corn production estimates for the US to 14.507 billion bushels from October's estimate of 14.722 billion bushels.

The lower production reflects a sharp reduction in yield estimates for US corn for 2020-21. The USDA lowered yield estimates to 175.8 bu/acre from 178.4 bu/acre seen in October, much lower than the market expectation of 177.7 bu/acre.

The harvested area under corn held steady at 82.5 million acres for 2020-21, and so did the estimate for corn used for ethanol in the US at 5.05 billion bushels.

USDA's forecast for total corn supplies in the US for 2020-21 fell to 16.527 billion bushels from 16.742 billion bushels in October.

Feed and residual demand is seen at 5.7 billion bushels, lower than 5.775 billion bushels last month.

No major changes were made to the 2019-20 supply and demand estimates for US corn in the WASDE report.

Futures prices of corn on the Chicago Board of Trade gained strength following the WASDE report. The most active December futures contract on the CBOT was trading at $4.23/bushel, up nearly 15 cents from the previous close, and nearly 12-13 cents/bushel after the release of the report.

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