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International Grains Council raises 2021-22 global grain trade estimate by 5 mil mt


Wheat trade forecast raised 3 million mt

Global grains output forecast increased 1 million mt

Corn output estimate raised 1 million mt

The International Grains Council has raised its estimate for global grain trade by 5 million mt to 421 million mt for the marketing year 2021-22 in its monthly outlook released Oct. 21, from 416 million mt in its September update.

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The council also raised its global grain output estimate by 1 million mt from its September projection to 2.290 billion mt for MR 2021-22 due to an uptick in corn production.

It also increased estimates for global grain consumption by 3 million mt to 2.291 billion mt, and for global carryover stocks to 600 million mt, from 599 million mt forecast in September.

For wheat, the trade estimate was raised by 3 million mt to 194 million mt, while the output estimate was kept steady at 781 million mt and the consumption estimate steady at 783 million mt. However, it also reduced the forecast for wheat carryover stocks to 276 million mt from 277 million mt in the September report.

The global corn output estimate for MY 2021-22 was raised slightly to 1.210 million mt from 1.209 million mt September, while the trade estimate was lowered slightly to 178 million mt from 179 million mt, the consumption estimate kept steady at 1.201 billion mt and the carryover stocks estimate raised to 285 million mt from 282 million mt.

For rice, the production estimate was increased slightly to 513 million mt from 512 million mt in September, the trade estimate maintained at 48 million mt, the consumption forecast raised by 1 million mt to 510 million mt and carryover stocks seen steady at 182 million mt.

The forecast for global soybean production was kept steady at 380 million mt, consumption unchanged at 376 million mt, trade lowered slightly to 170 million mt from 171 million mt and carryover stocks raised to 60 million mt from 57 million mt in September.