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US soybean production estimated at record high: USDA

Chicago — US domestic soybean production for 2018-19 was projected to rise another 107 million bushels to 4.693 billion on increased yield numbers, Department of Agriculture data showed Thursday.

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According to the agency's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates in September, the soybean yield forecast for the 2018-19 marketing year increased 1.2 bushels/acre to 52.8 bu/acre. Soybean ending stocks for 2018-19 are projected at 845 million bu, a 7.64% increase from the previous report. The projected season-average farm price range for soybeans is down 30 cents at $7.35/bu-$9.85/bu.

Soybean supplies for 2018-19 crop were projected at a record 5.113 billion bushels, raised by higher production. The higher production was only partially offset with export estimates unchanged and a 10 million-bushel increase in crushing estimates.

US soybean changes for the 2017-18 crop show exports increased by 20 million bu to 2.130 billion through July, and crush usage rose 15 million bu to 2.055 billion bu, according to the USDA data. The result of these changes is a lowering of beginning stocks for 2018-19 to 395 million bu.

Soybean oil ending stocks for 2018-19 were estimated higher by 100 million to 2.166 billion lb. Oil production was forecast higher by 115 million lb to 23.910 billion lb. Projected soybean oil usage for biodiesel production remained unchanged at 7.800 billion lb. The soybean oil average price range was forecast to remain unchanged at 28 cents/lb-32 cents/lb, according to Thursday's report.

World soybean production increased 2.22 million mt, with estimated larger crops for the US outpacing decreased projections for total foreign production. Global soybean export projections for 2018-19 were reduced 1.06 million mt to 156.9 million mt. China's 2018-19 soybean imports were reduced 1 million mt to 94 million mt, according to the USDA. -- Luke Lundgren, luke.lundgren@spglobal.com

-- Edited by Derek Sands, newsdesk@spglobal.com