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US soybean 2020-21 ending stocks forecast down on tight supply, higher usage: WASDE

Highlights

Higher exports and domestic crush likely

Low supply, high demand seen boosting prices

New Delhi — The US Department of Agriculture has cut its US soybean ending stocks forecast for the 2020-21 marketing year, which runs from September 2020 to August 2021, to 140 million bushels, from 175 million bushels in December, due to production cuts and higher exports and crush, the USDA said Jan. 12.

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The lower ending stocks projections in the USDA's World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report boosted US soybeans futures prices, which breached $14/bu benchmark immediately after the report's release at noon ET.

Soybeans production forecast was cut 35 million bushels on the month to 4.135 billion bushels, the report said.

While US soybean 2020-21 exports estimate increased 30 million bu from the previous estimate, to 2.230 billion bushels, the soybean crush estimate increased 5 million bushels to 2.200 billion on strong crush margins and record early season crush, the USDA said.

The USDA projected the soybean yield at 50.7 bu/acre, down 0.5 bul/acre on its previous estimate, the report said.

Soybean planted and harvested areas were also seen unchanged on the December estimate at 83.1 million acres and 82.3 million acres, respectively, the USDA said.

The 2020-21 US season-average soybean price was projected at $11.15/bu, up 60 cents on the December estimates, the USDA said. The soybean meal price was projected at $390/st, up $20 from last month, and soybean oil price forecast was up 2.5 cents from the previous estimate at 38.5 cents/lb.

GLOBAL

The global soybean production estimate was lowered 2 million mt to 48 million mt for Argentina and 200,000 to 2.2 million mt for Uruguay, reflecting dry weather conditions in December and early January, according to the WASDE report.

Mostly offsetting lower South American soybean production is a 2.1 million mt projected increase to 19.6 million mt for China, according to recent government data, the report said.

Projected global soybean stocks were lowered 1.3 million mt to 84.3 million mt, with lower stocks for Argentina and the US partly offset by higher stocks for China, the report said.

USDA WASDE 2020-21

USDA Dec

USDA Jan

Platts Jan

millions of acres

Acres Planted

83.1

83.1

83.1

Acres Harvested

82.3

82.3

82.3

bushels per acre

Yield per Harvested Acre

50.7

50.2

51.3

millions of bushels

Production

4,170

4,135

4,222

Crushing

2,195

2,200

2,200

Exports

2,200

2,230

2,225

Ending Stocks

175

140

210

Source: USDA, Platts Analytics