How have European fuel oil markets responded to the Middle East conflict?

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following escalating tensions in the Middle East sent European fuel oil imports from the Gulf plummeting 95% in the first half of 2026. Supply chains faced unprecedented disruption while risk premiums skyrocketed across the bunker market.

In this episode, S&P Global Energy's Emma Kettley, associate director, price reporting, is joined by reporters Joseph Jaffe, Iman Rezig and Awa Bobb in examining how different fuel oil grades responded to the crisis, from high sulfur fuel oil cracks surging into positive territory to bunker-barge spreads widening over 200% from prewar levels. They dissect how the June peace agreement between the US and Iran has reshaped fuel oil fundamentals, why VLSFO markets proved more resilient than HSFO during the crisis, and what the current contango structure signals for European fuel oil supply as summer demand patterns emerge.

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