LNG, Refined Products, Energy Transition, Agriculture, Emissions, Biofuels, Renewables, Carbon
March 20, 2026
War, energy security, and the redrawing of global trade flows
Featuring Eklavya Gupte and Dave Ernsberger
HIGHLIGHTS
Strait of Hormuz de facto closure disrupts 20% oil flow
Asia faces fuel shortages, refinery losses
Crisis accelerates energy market restructuring
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz was long considered one of the energy market's great hypotheticals -- until it became a reality. In this special CERAWeek series episode of Energy Evolution, host Eklavya Gupte sits down with Dave Ernsberger, president of S&P Global Energy, to examine what may be the most significant energy supply disruption ever and how it's forcing a fundamental redrawing of the global energy map.
With around 20% of the world's oil and LNG usually passing through this key chokepoint, the impact has been asymmetrical and severe -- India faces LPG shortages, Asian refiners are struggling with profitability, and fuel supplies are tightening sharply.
The conversation also explores how this crisis is accelerating a structural shift in energy markets, particularly East of Suez, where the energy trifecta of affordability, security, and sustainability has been upended.
Ernsberger also looks at how the conflict is intersecting with the AI and data center boom, creating inflationary pressures that reach from the Middle East to various states in the US.
