IMO could boost green bunker demand by more than five times: DNV

Bunker demand for low-emission fuels could be more than five times higher by 2050 if International Maritime Organization member states could push ahead with a global regulatory framework to limit greenhouse gas emissions, classification society DNV said Aug. 26.

The UN agency has faced delays in adopting the Net-Zero Framework, approved in April 2025 and originally designed to place a cost on maritime GHG from 2028, as a growing number of countries are proposing revisions amid fierce US opposition.

DNV identifies regulatory developments as the primary driver of maritime decarbonization, with uncertainty over the IMO framework creating a wide range of possible demand outcomes for low-emission marine fuels.

Under a scenario in which the earlier approved NZF is adopted, ships could consume around 33 million metric tons of oil equivalent of low-emission fuels in 2030 and 185 MMtoe 2050, according to DNV's latest annual Maritime Forecast to 2050 report.

By contrast, if negotiations fail and regulatory gridlock persists, demand would reach only about 4 MMtoe in 2030 and 33 MMtoe in 2050, mainly driven by the EU Emissions Trading System and FuelEU Maritime rules, DNV added. Currently, green bunker demand stands at 1 MMtoe, or 0.3% of global bunker mix, according to DNV.

"We need a global framework that will prevent fragmentation and also ensure a level playing field," DNV Maritime CEO Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria said in a press conference presenting the report.

"It will increase confidence for the ship owners, for the fuel producers, for the infrastructure developers and the investors, and that will help with long-term planning."

Bunker costs

On the supply side, DNV estimates that maximum global low-emission fuel supply could reach about 270 MMtoe in 2030, although actual production is likely to be lower because many announced projects have yet to secure final investment decisions. Of the projected supply, roughly 62 MMtoe is estimated to be cost-competitive under the approved version of NZF.

The report highlights major cost disparities across fuel pathways. DNV estimates that decarbonizing through low-GHG fuels will cost between $180 per metric ton of CO2-equivalent and $1,290/mtCO2e of emissions avoided by 2030, depending on feedstocks and production methods.

Based on Platts FuelEU CO2 Abatement assessments, which estimate fuel switching costs in terms of decarbonization, ship operators had to spend $444.82/mtCO2e Aug. 25 when bunkering with used cooking oil methyl ester instead of very low sulfur fuel oil in Rotterdam.

Biofuels generally offer the lowest abatement costs in the near term, including biomethane produced from manure, bioethanol from sugarcane and biodiesel from waste oils and fats. However, DNV said the scalability of many biofuel pathways will be constrained by limited biomass availability and growing competition from aviation and other consuming sectors.

DNV noted that future fuel competitiveness will increasingly depend on abatement costs rather than energy prices alone as emissions regulations place greater value on lifecycle greenhouse gas reductions, prompting shipping companies to rely increasingly on higher-cost fuels such as eMethanol, e-methane, e-ammonia and blue ammonia when biofuels are exhausted.

Against that backdrop, DNV described energy efficiency as the industry's most immediate and economically attractive decarbonization tool. The report found that energy-efficiency measures combined with operational changes such as speed reduction could lower global fleet energy demand by up to 16% by 2030 compared with a business-as-usual pathway.

The business case grows stronger under tighter regulations because lower fuel consumption reduces both emissions costs and the amount of expensive low-GHG fuel required for compliance. DNV said stronger regulatory signals could enable the global fleet to consume as much as 25% less energy by 2050 than under a slower transition scenario.

"Greenhouse gas regulations do not only boost demand for low-GHG fuels or incentivize the use of low greenhouse gas fuels," said Øyvind Sekkesæter, lead author of the DNV report.

"They can also incentivize energy efficiency to a high degree due to the extra compliance costs imposed on ships."