US could gain intelligence leverage from Iran oil sanctions waiver: expert

The US-Iran agreement and the US oil sanctions waiver for Iran provide some indirect benefits to the US and its allies, even though some see it as a gift to Tehran, experts said at a June 24 webinar hosted by the Middle East Institute.

The MOU throws the regime a lifeline by lifting US sanctions on Iran selling its oil, but it also allows the US intelligence community to monitor those dollar-based transactions, Kirsten Fontenrose, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said.

"That means the US can cut off sales on August 21st after the end of that 60-day period if Iran is dragging their feet and not agreeing to any nuclear program limitations," said Fontenrose, who worked in the first Trump administration. "We have not given up that leverage, and we actually have more visibility than we did before."

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz also forced the international community to develop alternative energy routes before it becomes an existential problem for Europe or Asia, Fontenrose said.

"What would it have meant for Europe if Iran played the closure card for the first time at the request of Russia before a Russian invasion of a NATO state, for instance?" Fontenrose said. "Or what about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? Is that when Japan would want to learn that the regime could close the strait at China's request?"

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright touted increased flows through the strait in a June 24 post on X, formerly known as Twitter. "In the last 24 hours, 72 ships and 20 million barrels of oil have transited through the Strait of Hormuz – fully restoring pre-conflict flows."

Since the Islamabad MOU was announced, a total of 18 non-Iranian crude tankers that had loaded cargoes prior to or at the start of the war have successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz, according to an S&P Global Commodities at Sea report published June 24. Collectively, these vessels are transporting 30 million barrels of crude oil to international markets, the report said.

Meanwhile Iranian crude oil loadings remain robust, the CAS report said. "Some 2.2 million b/d of Iranian crude has been loaded so far this month, compared with under 300,000 b/d in May," the report said.

The MOU could also benefit the US by constricting Russia's war budget, Fontenrose said. Russia will now have a harder time selling oil, and it will be at a lower price because Iran's oil will come back on the market, she said.

Damian Murphy, the senior vice president for national security and international policy at American Progress, said Ukraine has come out a winner in the Iran war because it is in a position to market its drone expertise and technology to the Gulf.

"I think the hope is that Ukraine is able to leverage this in a positive way," including seeing what Gulf partners can do to bring pressure to bear on Russia to end the war, Murphy said.

Murphy argued that the goals the administration outlined at the beginning of the war have not been met, and said the US is worse off than before the war started. American taxpayers are also paying military and economic costs of the war, he said.

"An extra $61 billion in gasoline and diesel expenses were borne by the American people over the course of this war, which works out to about $475 per household," Murphy said, citing a Brown University project that tracks the energy costs of the Iran war.