China targets 40% penetration of new energy heavy-duty truck by 2030

China will promote the large-scale deployment of new energy heavy-duty trucks across all scenarios to drive new growth in the transportation sector, according to an implementation plan released June 12 by 11 government departments, including the Ministry of Transport.

The plan targets a 40% penetration rate for new energy heavy-duty trucks by 2030, lifting the total fleet to more than 1.6 million units, or about 20% of all heavy-duty trucks in operation.

The plan also sets specific regional goals. In areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Fenwei Plain, the electrification of short-haul transport on fixed routes is slated to exceed 80%.

To support the transition, China will develop zero-carbon road transport corridors by building recharging and refueling infrastructure for electric heavy-duty trucks along its expressway network. This includes the construction of about 3,000 heavy-duty truck charging and battery-swapping stations, along with the strategic deployment of hydrogen and green fuel refueling stations in key scenarios.

By 2030, freight transported by new energy heavy-duty trucks on expressways is expected to account for 18% of total freight volume.

The initiative will establish a comprehensive system of infrastructure, technical equipment, supporting services, standards and policy guarantees. A promotion mechanism featuring multi-departmental collaboration and multi-stakeholder coordination will be formed to drive the large-scale adoption of new energy heavy-duty trucks.

Due to greater electrification, the country is increasingly better able to withstand supply shocks from transit disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, high prices and fuel substitution amid growing energy resilience are weakening end-user demand.

China's oil demand is expected to fall by 1.4 million barrels/day year over year in the second quarter of the year. As NEVs and LNG heavy trucks gain traction, a significant portion of gasoline and gasoil demand is being displaced by the widening cost advantage of alternatives, S&P Global Energy CERA said in a report May 25.

CERA estimated China's gasoil demand to fall by 208,000 b/d year over year to 3.84 million b/d in the second quarter