US diesel export ban unlikely, not a concern: Petrobras CEO

A US diesel export ban seems unlikely, and Brazil's state-owned oil giant Petrobras does not foresee any shortages in the country, but the war gave rise to discussions on expanding domestic refining capacity, chief executive officer Magda Chambriard said Sept. 24.

In a press conference following a panel in which she was interviewed at the ROG.e 2026 oil and gas conference in Rio de Janeiro, the CEO said the talk about an export ban are not concerning at the moment. Petrobras has good relations with India's Reliance Industries and can source more diesel from that trade partner; supply seems sufficient right now.

"We have booked cargoes for October already," the executive told journalists. "As of now, there is no shortage or shortage expectations in Brazil... and I wouldn't count on the US actually banning exports."

Data from market sources, port line-ups and S&P Global Commodities at Sea compiled by Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, showed Sept. 18 Petrobras was bringing in about 36% of the 940,083 cubic meters to be imported during September. Petrobras' director for logistics, sales and markets, Angélica Laureano, told local press on the sidelines of ROG.e 2026 Sept. 23 that around 650,000 cubic meters had been ordered for October.

Plans for a diesel export ban have circulated in the US, with President Donald Trump recently calling for the country to "not send out the diesel" amid soaring prices. The Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said the administration was considering restricting exports rather than a full ban, following increased Republican pressure to do so.

Although Chambriard said that India might be a relevant alternative to the US, Brazil has little room to diversify. With Persian Gulf barrels out of the picture due to Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, and Russia banning its exports, the US became the main source of diesel imports by far, holding an 81% share in September, according to Platts-compiled data.

The Platts assessment of the spread between US- and all-origin diesel cargoes has been zero across the country since July 10, meaning Gulf Coast barrels are the most competitive – mainly because there is hardly any other source of supply.

The current effects of the war on the entire energy complex, however, and Brazil's dependence on imports have been up for debate, Chambriard said. This scenario might lend some support to changes in Petrobras' strategic planning.

"What we know is that these trying times show that everything that can be done to assure Brazil's energy security is valid," the CEO commented. "The war increased our worries about supply in the country and, together with it, our impetus to deliver 100% of the country's needs."

Chambriard also told journalists the federal government's diesel subsidy of 2,120 reais/cubic meter had been comfortably supporting their decision up refinery prices only by the amount returned by the subsidy, at least until the recent Brent spike. NYMEX ULSD futures have also jumped in the past few weeks, driving Petrobras' postings further away from arbitrage levels.

"Good news is that [planning and budget] minister Bruno Moretti already announced that level of subsidies will be extended [from the current Sept. 26 deadline]," the Petrobras CEO said. "We are checking [the arbitrage] every 15 days and won't adjust prices daily so as to not lose market share. But it might be less comfortable now."

According to Agência Brasil, the official governmental news agency, Moretti said that the benefit will be rolled out or 30 more days, and a formal announcement is expected to happen until the end of the week. Both Petrobras and Acelen, Brazil's top refiners, are applying discounts to receive those subsidies.

Platts latest assessment for ultra low sulfur diesel (S10 grade in Brazil) on an FCA Itaqui basis, for example, was 5,143 reais/cubic meter Sept. 24 – a 1,990-real premium to Petrobras' prices.